Variations in large-scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations

Yan, Qing; Wei, Ting; Zhang, Zhongshi

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3120-9

Cited by 13 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Storm indices were calculated per grid cell of the western north Pacific (WNP) region and for time-series analyses were then averaged over that region (Table 5.4). This region is smaller than that examined in the main body of the chapter, so that this gut-check analysis would be consistent with previous research (Yan et al, 2015b(Yan et al, , 2016. SST was calculated per grid cell and then averaged over the Nino 3.4 index region.…”

Section: Models and Reanalysis Datasupporting

confidence: 61%

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Wave-driven geomorphology of Pacific carbonate coastlines: from landscape to wavelength scale

Bramante¹

2020

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The shallow marine ecosystems of coral atolls and the human communities they support are among the most vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change. Sea-level rise threatens to inundate low-lying reef islands, tropical cyclone intensification threatens islands with flooding and erosion, and ocean warming and acidification threaten the health of coral reefs. Unfortunately, the sediment dynamics that shape the morphol-

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Section: Models and Reanalysis Datasupporting

confidence: 61%

“…Thus, attempts to contrast records on the western margin of the basin have failed to identify the TC characteristics and drivers responsible for a clear southward shift in landfall frequency about 500 cal. yr BP Yan et al, 2016), for example.…”

Section: Expanding the Observational Recordmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wave-driven geomorphology of Pacific carbonate coastlines: from landscape to wavelength scale

Bramante¹

2020

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“…However, Muller et al (2017) conclude that there does not appear to be a clear association in the various TC basins between periods of enhanced El Niño activity and TC activity that is consistent with current climate relationships (Nott and Forsyth 2012;Haig and Nott 2016). Yan et al (2017a) identified a potential indicator of centennial-scale variations in TC numbers in the western North Pacific in the past millennium, but these variations tend to be inconsistent with written typhoon records from China during this time. Denniston et al (2015) find more consistent relationships between ENSO variations and TC incidence in the Australian region over the past 2,000 years.…”

Section: Paleoclimate Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 89%

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Knutson

Camargo

Chan

et al. 2019

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

447

305

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An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable in observations and whether any changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Overall, historical data suggest detectable TC activity changes in some regions associated with TC track changes, while data quality and quantity issues create greater challenges for analyses based on TC intensity and frequency. A number of specific published conclusions (case studies) about possible detectable anthropogenic influence on TCs were assessed using the conventional approach of preferentially avoiding type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection). We conclude there is at least low to medium confidence that the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific is detectable, or highly unusual compared to expected natural variability. Opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence, or whether any other observed changes represent detectable changes. The issue was then reframed by assessing evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence while seeking to reduce the chance of type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection). For this purpose, we used a much weaker “balance of evidence” criterion for assessment. This leads to a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection) but which may be useful for risk assessment. Several examples of these alternative statements, derived using this approach, are presented in the report.

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“…As low-resolution climate models have better skill in reproducing the environmental factors important to TC formation than TC-like structures themselves (e.g., Camargo, 2013), we employ a genesis potential index (GPI) as an alternate to estimate potential change in TC frequency during the last 21,000 years. Different types of GPI have been found to be useful in capturing the spatiotemporal variability of observed TC genesis (Bruyère et al, 2012;Menkes et al, 2012) (Figure 1f) and have been used in applications in both past and future climates (Camargo et al, 2009;Emanuel, 2013;Korty et al, 2012aKorty et al, , 2012bPausata et al, 2017;Yan et al, 2017). The GPI used here is defined as (Emanuel, 2010;Emanuel & Nolan, 2004;Korty et al, 2012a;Tippett et al, 2011) GPI Geophysical Research Letters…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years

Yan

Zhang

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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To advance our knowledge on tropical cyclone (TC)'s sensitivity to various external forcings, we investigate evolution of TC genesis potential over the North Atlantic during the last 21,000 years that experienced more varied forcings than present‐day using transient simulations. Abrupt large amplitude of fluctuations in genesis potential during the studied period was dominated by meltwater discharge, whereas insolation controlled the long‐term trend. Increased (decreased) meltwater discharge from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets leads to detrimental (conducive) conditions for genesis via altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and hence three‐dimensional temperature structure and Hadley circulation. This effect is larger than the orographic effect of retreated ice sheets that favors TC formation. Decreasing (increasing) insolation broadly results in more (less) favorable conditions for genesis arising from larger (smaller) local vertical temperature contrast and stronger (weaker) meridional circulation. Our study highlights potential changes of ice sheets and insolation in affecting future long‐term TC activity.

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Variations in large-scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations

Cited by 13 publications

References 51 publications

Wave-driven geomorphology of Pacific carbonate coastlines: from landscape to wavelength scale

Wave-driven geomorphology of Pacific carbonate coastlines: from landscape to wavelength scale

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years

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