Abstract. Emissions and long-range transport of mineral dust and
combustion-related aerosol from burning fossil fuels and biomass vary from
year to year, driven by the evolution of the economy and changes in
meteorological conditions and environmental regulations. This study offers
both satellite and model perspectives on the interannual variability and
possible trends of combustion aerosol and dust in major continental outflow
regions over the past 15 years (2003–2017). The decade-long record of
aerosol optical depth (AOD, denoted as τ), separately for combustion
aerosol (τc) and dust (τd), over global oceans is
derived from the Collection 6 aerosol products of the Moderate Resolution
Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard both Terra and Aqua. These
MODIS Aqua datasets, complemented by aerosol source-tagged simulations using
the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5), are then analyzed to
understand the interannual variability and potential trends of τc
and τd in the major continental outflows. Both MODIS and CAM5
consistently yield a similar decreasing trend of −0.017 to −0.020 per decade for τc over the North Atlantic Ocean and the
Mediterranean Sea that is attributable to reduced emissions from North
America and Europe, respectively. On the contrary, both MODIS and CAM5
display an increasing trend of +0.017 to +0.036 per decade for
τc over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the
Arabian Sea, which reflects the influence of increased anthropogenic
emissions from South Asia and the Middle East in the last 2 decades. Over the
northwestern Pacific Ocean, which is often affected by East Asian emissions of
pollution and dust, the MODIS retrievals show a decreasing trend of −0.021 per decade for τc and −0.012 per decade for τd, which is, however, not reproduced by the CAM5 model. In other outflow
regions strongly influenced by biomass burning smoke or dust, both MODIS
retrievals and CAM5 simulations show no statistically significant trends;
the MODIS-observed interannual variability is usually larger than that
of the CAM5 simulation.