Variations of Lake Ice Phenology on the Tibetan Plateau From 2001 to 2017 Based on MODIS Data

Cai, Yu; Cao, Ke; Li, Xingong; Zhang, Guoqing; Duan, Zheng; Lee, Hoonyol

doi:10.1029/2018jd028993

Cited by 87 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(113 reference statements)

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“…The general increase in air temperatures has delayed ice-in DOY for many lakes in North America (2.2 days decade −1 , Hewitt et al, 2018;3.3 days decade −1 , Jensen et al, 2007), Eastern Europe (1.2 days decade −1 , Takács et al, 2018), and Northern Europe (0.6-2.9 days decade −1 , Korhonen, 2006), however, at rates lower than that found for Lake Tovel. The delay for Lake Tovel (5.1 days decade −1 ) was similar to trends found in other mountainous areas such as the Rockies (5.9 days decade −1 , Roberts et al, 2017), Northeastern China (6.5 days decade −1 , Yang et al, 2019), and the Tibetan Plateau (80% of 58 lakes 5.5 days decade −1 , Cai et al, 2019). We suggest that the steeper air temperature trends seen in mountain regions have caused later ice-in with respect to low-elevation sites, underlining once again the increased vulnerability of mountain lakes to climate change.…”

Section: 1029/2020wr027321supporting

confidence: 77%

Ice Cover and Extreme Events Determine Dissolved Oxygen in a Placid Mountain Lake

Flaim

Andreis

Piccolroaz

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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A decrease in hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO) is a commonly seen effect of climate change. However, in oligotrophic Lake Tovel (Italy), a deep mountain lake, annual mean DO (% saturation) has increased from near anoxia to >20% in the bottom layer (35-39 m). We analyzed long-term patterns of DO (1937-2019) using different methods (correlation and trend analysis, identification of extreme events) to link DO to drivers and indices of mixing. While spring mixing remained temporally limited, later ice-in (5.1 days decade −1) and the positive relationship between ice-in and DO the following year evidenced autumn mixing as the main driver for hypolimnetic DO increase. Extreme meteorological events also replenished hypolimnetic DO. Using DO and conductivity (1995-2019), we identified 14 deep mixing events with hypolimnetic DO > 40%. Density-based indices (Schmidt stability, relative thermal resistance, Lake Number, and Wedderburn Number) only partially captured these events that were related to snowmelt, flooding, and cold spells during spring and autumn, with a carryover effect sometimes lasting >1 year. Recently, annual mean DO in the upper layer decreased beyond temperature-dependent solubility. This decrease was not comprehensively confirmed by statistical tests but was possibly linked to atmospheric stilling. We suggest that Lake Tovel's shift from meromixis to dimixis was driven by climate warming (i.e., increasing air temperature 0.6°C decade −1) that delayed ice-in and increased autumn mixing. Our work underlines the vulnerability of mountain lakes and their different response to climate change with respect to more studied lowland lakes. Plain Language Summary Dissolved oxygen is fundamental for aquatic life. Lake Tovel (Brenta Dolomites, Italy) has a long history of limnological studies starting in the 1930s; therefore, we can study oxygen's long-term evolution. Contrary to most temperate lakes, dissolved oxygen is increasing in the deep layers of Lake Tovel since the 1990s. We linked this to later ice-in: as a consequence of climate change, Lake Tovel has lost almost 3 weeks of ice cover since the mid-1980s. This loss (5.1 days decade −1) in ice-in is much steeper than in lowland lakes. Because dissolved oxygen is replenished in lakes by mixing, a longer ice-free period means more time to mix, with oxygen reaching deeper layers. Extreme events such as heavy snowmelt, flooding, and cold spells during spring and autumn also increased mixing with effects often lasting over a year. However, in the last decade, we are beginning to see a decrease in dissolved oxygen at the surface, probably because of less wind. Years with little snow also tend to coincide with lower concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the deep layers. Changes in air temperatures, precipitation, and wind will determine the evolution of dissolved oxygen in Lake Tovel, a sentinel mid-altitude lake for climate change.

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Section: 1029/2020wr027321supporting

confidence: 77%

Ice Cover and Extreme Events Determine Dissolved Oxygen in a Placid Mountain Lake

Flaim

Andreis

Piccolroaz

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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“…Ice phenology dates (freeze-up/ice-on and break-up/ice-off dates) and ice cover duration can also be derived from the IMS products [74,76]. MODIS 500-m snow (MOD10A1/MYD10A1) and 250-m surface reflectance (MOD09GQ) products have been used in a few recent studies, alone or in combination with each other and 1-km MODIS (MOD11A1/MYD11A1) Land Surface Temperature (LST), to derive ice dates (start and end of break-up and freeze-up dates) and their associated trends (2001-2017 or shorter) [77][78][79][80][81][82]. Approaches that use top-of-atmosphere or surface reflectance (e.g., MODIS near-infrared and red bands) are based on threshold values where ice is determined to be present/absent above/below a certain value.…”

Section: Lake Ice Covermentioning

confidence: 99%

Remote Sensing of Environmental Changes in Cold Regions: Methods, Achievements and Challenges

Watts

Jiang

et al. 2019

Remote Sensing

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Cold regions, including high-latitude and high-altitude landscapes, are experiencing profound environmental changes driven by global warming. With the advance of earth observation technology, remote sensing has become increasingly important for detecting, monitoring, and understanding environmental changes over vast and remote regions. This paper provides an overview of recent achievements, challenges, and opportunities for land remote sensing of cold regions by (a) summarizing the physical principles and methods in remote sensing of selected key variables related to ice, snow, permafrost, water bodies, and vegetation; (b) highlighting recent environmental nonstationarity occurring in the Arctic, Tibetan Plateau, and Antarctica as detected from satellite observations; (c) discussing the limits of available remote sensing data and approaches for regional monitoring; and (d) exploring new opportunities from next-generation satellite missions and emerging methods for accurate, timely, and multi-scale mapping of cold regions.

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“…Overall, these studies mainly focused on the monitoring of lake ice phenology and corresponding data set production. Lake ice phenology is recognized as a robust indicator of climate change (Cai et al, 2019). The prediction of change in lake ice phenology can, in turn, provide better evaluation of potential influence factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yao et al (2016) monitored the lake ice phenology (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011) of 22 lakes in the Hoh Xil region by using MODIS data products (MOD09GA). Based on MOD10A1 (Terra) and MYD10A1 (Aqua), Cai et al (2019) monitored the lake ice phenology of 58 lakes in the TP via the open water pixels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction and Analysis of Lake Ice Phenology Dynamics Under Future Climate Scenarios Across the Inner Tibetan Plateau

et al. 2020

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How climate change influences lake ice phenology is important in understanding the climate-lake interactions. This study investigates the response of lake ice phenology to future climate scenarios. Thirty-five lakes in the Tibetan Plateau were studied. Firstly, we applied a random forest (RF) model to simulate lake ice condition under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results of the virtual experiments show that lake ice freeze-up start date (FUSD) and break-up end date (BUED) are well simulated by the RF model, with R 2 FUSD > 0.91 under different RCPs, and R 2 BUED > 0.84, except in RCP2.6 (R 2 = 0.74). Secondly, two non-parametric methods (Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator) were used for analyzing the trends in lake ice phenology and its response to various emission scenarios. Lake ice phenology was largely affected by temperature changes under different RCPs, and it had a larger inter-annual variability in the early period (2002-2050) than in the later period (2050-2099). FUSD of 35 lakes delayed by an average of 0.01, 0.04, and 0.04 days/yr from 2002 to 2098 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, whereas BUED advanced by an average of 0.04, 0.11, and 0.21 days/yr from 2003 to 2099. Both delays in FUSD and advances in BUED contributed to shortened average ice duration of 35 lakes, which shortened by 0.05, 0.14, and 0.25 days/yr from 2002 to 2098 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. These findings could help to tackle the impacts of climate change on the lake systems. Plain Language Summary The impacts of future climate scenarios on lake ice phenology is important in understanding the climate-lake interactions. Thirty-five lakes in the Tibetan Plateau were studied. We employed a random forest (RF) model to simulate lake ice condition under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results of the virtual experiments show that lake ice freeze-up start date (FUSD) and break-up end date (BUED) are well simulated by the RF model, under different RCPs. FUSD of 35 lakes delayed by an average of 0.01, 0.04, and 0.04 days/yr from 2002 to 2098 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, whereas BUED advanced by an average of 0.04, 0.11, and 0.21 days/yr from 2003 to 2099. Both delays in FUSD and advances in BUED contributed to shortened average ice duration of 35 lakes, which shortened by 0.05, 0.14, and 0.25 days/yr from 2003 to 2098 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. Our results could help to tackle the impacts of climate change on the lake systems.

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Variations of Lake Ice Phenology on the Tibetan Plateau From 2001 to 2017 Based on MODIS Data

Cited by 87 publications

References 49 publications

Ice Cover and Extreme Events Determine Dissolved Oxygen in a Placid Mountain Lake

Ice Cover and Extreme Events Determine Dissolved Oxygen in a Placid Mountain Lake

Remote Sensing of Environmental Changes in Cold Regions: Methods, Achievements and Challenges

Prediction and Analysis of Lake Ice Phenology Dynamics Under Future Climate Scenarios Across the Inner Tibetan Plateau

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