Vegetation community changes in European woodlands amid a changing climate: a palaeoecological modelling perspective

Abstract

Climate has an important role in shaping the composition and structure of woodlands. There is considerable uncertainty regarding how woodlands will respond to climate change over the next hundred years. To better understand likely responses to contemporary climate change, this paper analyses taxonomic richness, evenness and community similarity in palaeoecological data from 31 European woodlands during an abrupt cooling and warming event c. 8,200 years ago. Repeated measures ANOVAs demonstrated there was no significant overall difference in richness or community evenness over time. A single significant pairwise contrast was found (richness decreased as climate warmed) but was short-lived, indicating that high-level effects were temporary. However, analysis of species turnover measured using community similarity revealed substantial changes (only 24% of species remained at some sites after climatic change), indicating that the actual species within that community had altered. General(ised) Linear Models showed variation in the direction and magnitude of community change was not related to the broadscale biogeographical variables of latitude, longitude or altitude. Our research has several important implications for practitioners involved in community ecology research and woodland management. Although site-level richness is largely unaffected, we caution that there will be considerable species turnover in woodlands as the climate warms. As species turnover at individual sites will have a negligible effect if driven by localised random processes, we recommend practitioners to consider long-term gamma diversity wherever possible. This shifts focus towards landscape-scale approaches that span generations rather than the typical 3-5-year span of funding, management plans and political cycles.

Learning from the past: opportunities for advancing ecological research and practice using palaeoecological data

“…Palaeoecology can also be helpful when studying aspects of community ecology that, unlike succession, might not be inherently temporal but where examining patterns over many years is advantageous (Rull 2010). Examples of where this approach has been used to good effect include examining species turnover in woodland flora in relation to climate change across Europe (Webb and Goodenough 2021), quantifying variation in predator-prey cycles in Italian mammals (Raia et al 2007), analyzing the long-term effects of herbivory in the UK (Whitehouse and Smith 2010) and considering long-term synchronous population changes in sockeye salmon (Oncorhyncus nerka) in the north Pacific in relation to changes in different freshwater nursery lakes on Kodiak Island, Alaska (Finney et al 2002).…”

“…range shifts in European flora (Huntley and Birks 1983)) and detailed studies of rapid climate perturbations (e.g. Webb and Goodenough, 2021). Understanding of other biogeographical patterns is also informed by palaeoecological investigation, including the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient (e.g.…”

“…Where a direct combination of datasets is not possible, use of palaeoecological analogues can sometimes be employed to help understand current ecological changes in ways that have direct implications for ecological policy and practice. For example, Webb and Goodenough (2021) studied biodiversity metrics over a past rapid climate event and showcased how woodland vegetation might respond to contemporary rapid climate change, and related this to the need to focus contemporary monitoring on gamma rather than alpha richness.…”

Ancient DNA and osteological analyses of a unique paleo-archive reveal Early Holocene faunal expansion into the Scandinavian Arctic

“…This warming is associated with observations of poleward shifts in the distribution of species in both marine and terrestrial environments (3)(4)(5)(6), although it remains unclear how resilient many species are in adapting to and tracking shifting habitats (3,7). Past periods with rapid climate change can be an analog for current and future change [see, e.g., (8)(9)(10)] and paleo-archives from such periods often provide the only opportunity to observe species and community turnover following previous dramatic climatic and environmental transitions [see, e.g., (11,12)]. These archives are therefore essential to help improve predictions of species' resilience and the response of ecosystems and biodiversity today (13)(14)(15)(16), especially in those areas with the fastest rates of change.…”