Between the mid-1960s and mid-1980s, red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) died at unusual rates on the mountains of New York and western New England. We determined the relationship between standardized tree ring widths and monthly climate data for calibration and verification periods from 1856 to 1981 and found that after about 1960, there was a distinct shift in the temperature variables related to standardized ring widths in vigorous spruce. The beginning of widespread spruce mortality, regionwide growth decreases, and the shift in response to climate in the early 1960s corresponds to the onset of a decade of unusually cold winters and several consecutive years when severe winter damage was noted across the Northeast in this species. We suggest that the episodes of winter damage are an important initiating and synchronizing factor in the red spruce decline.A period of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) mortality has been documented in the Adirondack, Green, and White Mountains, which is most pronounced at upper elevations (1-4). At the sites we studied, red spruce mortality has been heavy (30-60% of the basal area is standing dead) near the top of its elevational range (1200-1300 m) but has been less at lower elevations (<800 m). As suggested (4), the mortality probably results from several factors and we use the term "decline" to designate this (5, 6). Plausible causal agents are climate, insects, disease, and (possibly) air pollution (4).
Climate and DiseaseThe hypothesis that climatic extremes or climate change can be an important factor in tree diseases has been discussed by many authors (e.g., refs. 5-7), but it is difficult to obtain rigorous proof of an unfavorable climate influence on mature trees. Our approach was as follows.We applied tree-ring analysis to determine what types of climatic conditions are unfavorable for high-elevation red spruce and then used historical records to test the possibility that modern and historical periods of red spruce mortality were temporally consistent with periods that were, according to the tree-ring analysis, climatically unfavorable. Then, we postulated that during a period of decline, the influence of climate on ring width might be overridden by more critical factors and the beginning of such a shift in climate/tree-ring relationships might be useful in establishing the initiation of a decline. To establish a climate-driven mechanism of injury that could initiate a decline, we examined historical reports to determine if there were widespread reports of climaterelated injuries that coincided with the beginning of regionwide spruce mortality and the shift in tree-ring/climate relationships that we found.
Climate and Tree RingsPrevious reports (2, 4) contain the sampling procedures and data from our systematic survey of spruce vigor in the Catskill, Adirondack, Green, and White Mountains. Breastheight increment cores were obtained from vigorous canopylayer red spruce at the sampling points in 1982. Age distributions of spruce at our sites are given in ref. 4. The sp...