In the spline rolling process with round dies, additional kinematic compensation is an essential mechanism for improving the division of teeth and pitch accuracy as well as surface quality. The motion characteristic between the die and workpiece under varied center distance in the spline rolling process was investigated. Mathematical models of the instantaneous center of rotation, transmission ratio, and centrodes in the rolling process were established. The models were used to analyze the rolling process of the involute spline with circular dedendum, and the results indicated that (1) with the reduction in the center distance, the instantaneous center moves toward workpiece, and the transmission ratio increases at first and then decreases; (2) the variations in the instantaneous center and transmission ratio are discontinuous, presenting an interruption when the involute flank begins to be formed; (3) the change in transmission ratio at the forming stage of the workpiece with the involute flank can be negligible; and (4) the centrode of the workpiece is an Archimedes line whose polar radius reduces, and the centrode of the rolling die is similar to Archimedes line when the workpiece is with the involute flank.