Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management

Hamann, Andreas; Roberts, David R.; Barber, Quinn E.; Carroll, Carlos; Nielsen, Scott E.

doi:10.1111/gcb.12736

Cited by 198 publications

(281 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Deciding what and where to restore is a key challenge for future landscapescale restoration efforts (McRae et al 2012, Torrubia et al 2014. Decisions may be aided by technological advances around, for instance, the application of climate velocity models in conjunction with more traditional ecological models to ascertain areas of potential future habitat suitability as targets for restoration efforts (Hamann et al 2015).…”

Section: Magnitude Of Environmental Changes Requires Restoration At Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in restoration ecology: rising to the challenges of the coming decades

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Simultaneous environmental changes challenge biodiversity persistence and human wellbeing. The science and practice of restoration ecology, in collaboration with other disciplines, can contribute to overcoming these challenges. This endeavor requires a solid conceptual foundation based in empirical research which confronts, tests and influences theoretical developments. We review conceptual developments in restoration ecology over the last 30 years. We frame our review in the context of changing restoration goals which reflect increased societal awareness of the scale of environmental degradation and the recognition that inter-disciplinary approaches are needed to tackle environmental problems. Restoration ecology now encompasses facilitative interactions and network dynamics, trophic cascades, and above-and belowground linkages. It operates in a non-equilibrium, alternative states framework, at the landscape scale, and in response to changing environmental, economic and social conditions. Progress has been marked by conceptual advances in the fields of trait-environment relationships, community assembly, and understanding the links between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Conceptual and practical advances have been enhanced by applying evolving technologies, including treatments to increase seed germination and overcome recruitment bottlenecks, high throughput DNA sequencing to elucidate soil community structure and function, and advances in satellite technology and GPS tracking to monitor habitat use. The synthesis of these technologies with systematic reviews of context dependencies in restoration success, model based analyses and consideration of complex socioecological systems will allow generalizations to inform evidence based interventions. Ongoing challenges include setting realistic, socially acceptable goals for restoration under changing environmental conditions, and prioritizing actions in an increasingly space-competitive world. Ethical questions also surround the use of genetically modified material, translocations, taxon substitutions, and de-extinction, in restoration ecology. Addressing these issues, as the Ecological Society of America looks to its next century, will require current and future generations of researchers and practitioners, including economists, engineers, philosophers, landscape architects, social scientists and restoration ecologists, to work together with communities and governments to rise to the environmental challenges of the coming decades.

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Section: Magnitude Of Environmental Changes Requires Restoration At Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in restoration ecology: rising to the challenges of the coming decades

et al. 2015

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“…One of the most important differences between the current collection of climate change-related predictive frameworks and the empirical literature is the reliance of these frameworks on climate velocity -the speed with which climatic zones are shifting spatially -as a metric to predict the rate at which species must respond to climate change (Loarie et al 2009, Burrows et al 2011, Hamann et al 2015. This focus presents a problem, as the standard formulas used to calculate climate velocity rely on mean annual rates of temperature change (Hamann et al 2015), which can mask seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes -e.g.…”

Section: Review and Synthesismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This focus presents a problem, as the standard formulas used to calculate climate velocity rely on mean annual rates of temperature change (Hamann et al 2015), which can mask seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes -e.g. when a region is warming during one portion of the year, but cooling in another.…”

Section: Review and Synthesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

2017

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Global climate change has already caused local declines and extinctions. These losses are generally thought to occur because climate change is progressing too rapidly for populations to keep pace. Based on this hypothesis, numerous predictive frameworks have been developed to project future range shifts and changes in population dynamics resulting from global climate change. However, recent empirical work has demonstrated that seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes -when a region is warming during some parts of the year, but cooling in others -are constraining species' responses to climate change more strongly than rapid warming, leading to intra-specific variation in responses to climate change and local population declines. Here, we couple a review of the literature related to asynchronous climate change regimes with meta-population simulations and an analysis of long-term North American climate trends to show that seasonally asynchronous regimes are occurring throughout most of North America and that their current spatial distribution may be a strong barrier to dispersal and gene flow across many species' ranges. Thus, even though adaptation to climate change may potentially be more common and rapid than previously thought, species whose ranges overlap with asynchronous regimes will likely succumb to local declines that may be difficult to mitigate via dispersal. Future climate-related predictive frameworks should therefore incorporate asynchronous regimes as well as more traditional measures of climate velocity in order to fully capture the array of potential future climate change scenarios.

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“…These algorithms divide the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability in order to calculate the speed by which species must migrate to maintain constant climate conditions (Loarie et al 2009). This approach has recently been used to identify vulnerable species in need of conservation management (Hamann et al 2015).…”

Section: Sufficient Time To Migratementioning

confidence: 99%

Constraints to and conservation implications for climate change adaptation in plants

2015

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Contemporary climate change is having widespread impacts on plant populations. Understanding how plants respond to this change is essential to our efforts to conserve them. The key climate responses of plant populations can be categorised into one of three types: migration, in situ adaptation, or extirpation. If populations are to avoid extirpation then migration and/or in situ adaptation is essential. In this review we first articulate the current and future constraints of plant populations, but trees in particular, to the different adaptation strategies (e.g. space availability, rate of change, habitat fragmentation, niche availability). Secondly, we assess the use of the most appropriate methods (e.g. natural environmental gradients, genome and transcriptome scans) for assessing and understanding adaptive responses and the capacity to adapt to future challenges. Thirdly, we discuss the best conservation approaches (e.g. assisted migration, biodiversity corridors, ex situ strategies) to help overcome adaptive constraints in plants. Our synthesis of plant, and particularly tree, responses and constraints to climate change adaptation, combined with the identification of conservation strategies designed to overcome constraints, will help deliver effective management actions to assist adaptation in the face of current and future climate change.

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Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management

Cited by 198 publications

References 16 publications

Advances in restoration ecology: rising to the challenges of the coming decades

Advances in restoration ecology: rising to the challenges of the coming decades

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

Constraints to and conservation implications for climate change adaptation in plants

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