Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) develops in small airways. Severity of small airway pathology relates to progression and mortality. The present study evaluated the prediction of COPD of a validated test for small airway disease, i.e. a slope of the alveolar plateau of the single breath nitrogen test (N 2-slope). The N 2-slope, spirometry, age, smoking habits, and anthropometric variables at baseline were obtained in a population-based sample (n ¼ 592). The cohort was followed for first COPD events (first hospital admission of COPD or related conditions or death from COPD) during 38 years. During follow-up, 52 subjects (8.8%) had a first COPD event, of which 18 (3.0%) died with a first COPD diagnosis. In the proportional hazard regression analysis adjusted for age and smoking habits, the cumulative COPD event incidence increased from 5% among those with high forced expired volume in one second (FEV 1) to 25% among those with low FEV 1 , while increasing from 4% among those with the lowest N 2-slope to 26% among those with the highest. However, combining the N 2-slope and FEV 1 resulted in considerable synergy in the prediction of first COPD event and even more so when taking account of smoking habits. The cumulative COPD event incidence rate was 75% among heavy smokers with the highest N 2-slope and lowest FEV 1 , and less than 1% among never smokers with the lowest N 2-slope and highest FEV 1. Thus, combining the results of the single breath N 2-slope and FEV 1 considerably improved the prediction of COPD events as compared to either test alone.