Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

Abstract

PNL-4900 UC-60 Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results. This serves as a warning that forecasts should be verified in the format and context required by the end user in order to determine their real value. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS SUMMARY 1.0 INTRODUCTION CONTENTS 2.0 TRANSFORMATION OF WIND SPEED TO WTG POWER OUTPUT. 2.1 TRANSFORMATION UNCERTAINTIES. 2.1.1 Dependency Upon WTG Operating Characteristics 2.1.2 Smoothing Effects of Time Averaging 2.1.3 Site-to-Site Variability in Wind Characteristics 2.2 APPLICABILITY OF THE TRANSFORMATION MODEL 3.0 WIND POWER FORECAST VERIFICATION RESULTS 3.1 DETERMINISTIC POWER FORECAST VERIFICATION 3.2 SPT MODEL FORECAST VERIFICATION