Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility

Economic and social implications of aging societies

“…This can result from both demographic and sociological factors: Fewer potential mothers in the future will result in fewer births, while ideal family size is declining among younger generations as a consequence of the lower childbearing they see in previous generations (12,13).…”

How population growth relates to climate change

“…Recent model calculations, which assume that during the second half of this century all parts to the world will have fertility levels of 1.5-1.75-which is the current average of industrialized countries, including Chinashow that, depending on life expectancy having a ceiling at 90 or 120 y, world population in 2200 would come to lie within a range of 2-6 billion (15). But this would only be possible if Africa experienced a rapid education expansion followed by economic growth.…”

China's Family Planning Policies: Recent Reforms and Future Prospects

“…In Shanghai in 2012, for example, only about 8 percent of couples who were eligible to have a second child by virtue of both being singletons actually did so (Wang 2012), with similarly low figures reported for Beijing Hou, Ma, and Huang 2008). Two recent meta-reviews of studies on voluntarily stated fertility preferences (i.e., net of policy restrictions) have found a growing desire among parents in urban areas to have just one child and, critically, have identified subreplacement ideals in rural areas (Basten and Gu 2013;Basten, Lutz, and Scherbov 2013;Hou et al 2014). According to a survey by the NHFPC in October 2013, of the couples who would become eligible under the reform, only 50 to 60 percent intended to bear a second child (CECC 2013).…”