Vieillissement de la population, pouvoir électoral, système de retraites et croissance.

Construction and Impact of a Buffer Fund within the French PAYG Pension Scheme in a Demo-Economic Model

“…The first conclusion is that it appears very difficult to provide a clear diagnosis about the macroeconomic impact of a reserve fund, when the production function is not specified: it affects the rate of return, economic growth, and the duration of the fund, etc. For instance, factor yields are of course impacted by the demographic cycle and this is consistent with theoretical findings (Artus and Legros, 1999), but the impact is much stronger with an exogenous-type production function (simple Solow model) than with the endogenous growth model.…”

“…These conclusions are consistent with Artus et Legros (1997) or Legros (2001) who show that if retirees' (or the near retirees' group) is overweighed in the public decision, and/or if they have the electoral majority, the contributors and forthcoming contributors will suffer higher contribution rates and a low retirement age. This will last until the PAYG return is much lower than the capital return.…”

“…The "pros -mix schemes" arguments generally rely on empirical past observation of better returns for financial assets than for PAYG pension schemes (the wage bill growth rate), consistent with the theory. The "anti-mixed schemes " argument claims that the superiority of financial returns will not stand up to demographic change; Artus and Legros (1999) argue that the demographic cycle, which will begin in 2005-2010, will paradoxically favour the PAYG schemes, especially if these funded schemes are invested in fixed income assets. The analysis is that the active population has been large in past years, this has involved high rates of unemployment, low levels of wages, low levels of consumption and weakness of the economic growth in Europe and Asia where the saving ratespushed up by the increasing life expectancy and the uncertainty facing PAYG schemes -are great, relative to investment rates.…”

“…One of the main difficulties is to explore the more general consequences of these reforms. In fact, most of the models dealing with pensions simulations do not include a macroeconomic linkage that would allow their macroeconomic impact to be measured even though it has been shown that these reforms could have an important influence (Blanchet, 1992, Artus andLegros, 1999).…”