Violence in Nigeria’s 2019 general elections: trend and geospatial dimensions

Oyewole, Samuel; Omotola, J. Shola

doi:10.1007/s10708-021-10375-9

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Although not aligned with the current study forecast, the Danish Refugee Council (2021) forecast predicts a 334% increase in displacement figures in 2022, a year just before the 2023 general elections. This result aligns with the assertions of scholars who have described the mechanism fostering the link between electoral-induced religious, ethnical, and political conflicts and forced displacements (Dokoupilová, 2019Oyewole and Omotola, 2021;Oyewole, 2022). Arms trafficking flourishing through the porous Nigerian borders accounts for the proliferation of civilian-styled arms that are mostly used to promote killings and violence before and during election seasons.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Security experts assert that are great quantity of these weapons wielded by civilians are used during election seasons to perpetrate violence (Tukur et al, 2020). Pre-election conflicts stem from ethnic, religious, and political divisions that fuel violent sentiments to influence the election season (Dokoupilová, 2019Oyewole and Omotola, 2021). Nevertheless, it is essential to remind that corrupt leaders and groups engineer this violence to instrumentalize ethnic sentiments in the choice of leadership (Oyewole, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in forced displacement due to conflict from 2009 to 2021: A decade forecast for effective humanitarian emergency response system in Nigeria

Izuakor

2022

Front. Hum. Dyn.

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Internal displacement figures in conflicted affected regions of Nigeria is a significant problem that poses a risk of humanitarian crises accounted for by poor and a neglected emergency response system. The present study analyzed annual conflict/violence-induced internal displacement trends in Nigeria from 2009 to 2021 and predicted the annual figures for the next 10 years. Using the R software, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was adopted for analysis, while model (0, 0, 1) was chosen as the best fitting model with the minimum AIC coefficient. From the ARIMA forecast, 2022 showed a 4% decrease in displacement figures, further decreasing by 7% in 2023. The figures remained constant for the rest of the forecasted years, showing neither increases nor decreases from 2024 to 2031. Close observation revealed the overlapping trends between increased annual internal displacements and pre-election periods in Nigeria. This study will help inform humanitarian bodies on the significance of early detection and preparation for future displacement crises while considering the cycle of ethno-religious-related electoral violence. Furthermore, future studies should compare the accuracy of ARIMA with other models to ensure its validity using a similar sample.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in forced displacement due to conflict from 2009 to 2021: A decade forecast for effective humanitarian emergency response system in Nigeria

Izuakor

2022

Front. Hum. Dyn.

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“…The above tends to promote conflict in the electoral process because the winner of an election to a position, especially an executive position, does not only have access to political offices, thereby perpetuating themselves, but the position enables them to "dole out state resources in a characteristic networks of patronage and corruption" (Moliki, 2021, p. 7). The above becomes a major problem as the stakes are high, engendering stiff competition and a "do or die" contest with INEC, in most cases, being compromised, leading to conflicts in the electoral process (Oyewole & Omotola, 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the run-off to the 2019 elections, for instance, INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu claimed that the Commission "has been sued or joined in over 640 court cases arising from the nomination of candidates". He further maintained that there were "40 different court orders against the Commission on whether to add or drop candidates" days to the 2019 elections (Oyewole & Omotola, 2022). In other cases, clashes between party supporters during primaries, election campaign periods, voting days and after the declaration of election results have induced electoral violence in Nigeria.…”

Section: Other Factors Precipitating Election Related Conflict In The...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Election Related Conflicts in Nigeria: The Role of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)

Aboh

Obem²

2022

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The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is the Electoral Management Body (EMB) established in Nigeria to deliver free, fair, and credible elections through a transparent and peaceful process. However, the origin of violence perpetrated during elections with wanton destruction of public and private property, including loss of lives all over the country, calls for an examination of the role of INEC in this regard. This study used historical method analyses to examine the role of INEC. The study found out that though INEC has, to a large extent, performed its role and also helped to deepen democracy in Nigeria since its establishment in 1998. Further studies also found that INEC’s poor organisational abilities, lack of essential transparency, widespread procedural irregularities, substantial evidence of fraud, widespread voter disenfranchisement at different stages of the process, etc., have been responsible for the numerous incidences of conflict in the country during elections. This paper concludes and recommends that external challenges, such as security, inadequate funding, and the desperation amongst Nigerian politicians, be moderated and curtailed with a synergy between the Legislature and Executive arms. At the same time, the judiciary plays its role well, including that INEC employs professional ethics amongst its staff with organisational and logistical efficiency and effectiveness in the electoral process. INEC’s role will be overtly transparent and therefore lead to the delivery of peaceful rather than conflict-infected elections.

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“…This has led to several cases and incidences of political violence and conflicts that further discredit the country's democracy. Besides that, the country has also seen the rise of militant and extremist groups allegedly sponsored by politicians to not only advance their political agenda, but also to further undermine the consolidation of democracy and stability in the country by using religion as a tool (Vaaseh 2015;Oyewole and Omotola 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Democracy, Peace, and Religion in Nigeria: Can Religion Be Used to Consolidate or Undermine Democracy and Peace?

Jatau,

Maza

2023

Religions

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This study looks at the relationships between religion, democracy, and peace. It is based on this premise that this article examines how religion is used to consolidate democracy and promote peace in societies, using Nigeria as its framework of analysis. Using the qualitative method of analysis where emphasis is placed on primary and secondary documents, which involve articles, reports, and newspaper articles triangulating with key informant interviews (KIIs) and stakeholder analysis, the findings of this article suggest that religion plays a significant role in the consolidation of democracy and peace given its important place in advocating some principles and ideals of democracy, which involve equity, fairness, freedom, pluralism, respect for diversities, and defending minority rights, amongst others. However, challenges associated with the weaponization of religion to pursue selfish political agenda and interests by both religious and political elites in Nigeria has become more of a norm than what is expected between both variables. This has helped in the creation of a hostile and unstable political environment, and in the pervasion of democratic and political institutions and agencies responsible for promoting accountable leadership, good governance, representative governance, political interference, and repressive policies, limiting the rights and freedoms of citizens who continue to impede the enhancement of a strongly consolidated democratic culture and peace in transition democracies such as Nigeria. This article suggests the need for relevant actors to ensure that institutions of the state are strengthened to provide the dividends of democracy. This can be achieved by addressing the challenge of the negative use of religion by the elites to advance unholy political interests and agenda. It is also important to create machinery to address the structural problems that breed poverty; political, economic, and social exclusion; and human rights abuses, limiting political and electoral freedoms. Addressing these challenges also requires relevant stakeholders and actors to understand that the process is multi-pronged, which also requires acknowledging, accommodating, and accepting individual and group diversities and, above all, requires the patience and the political will of these actors to ensure its actualization. Addressing these concerns will significantly strengthen and enhance the consolidation of democracy and peace in fragile and transition societies.

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Violence in Nigeria’s 2019 general elections: trend and geospatial dimensions

Cited by 12 publications

References 21 publications

Trends in forced displacement due to conflict from 2009 to 2021: A decade forecast for effective humanitarian emergency response system in Nigeria

Trends in forced displacement due to conflict from 2009 to 2021: A decade forecast for effective humanitarian emergency response system in Nigeria

Election Related Conflicts in Nigeria: The Role of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)

Democracy, Peace, and Religion in Nigeria: Can Religion Be Used to Consolidate or Undermine Democracy and Peace?

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