Visualizing flood forecasting uncertainty: some current European EPS platforms—COST731 working group 3

Bruen, Michael; Krahe, Peter; Zappa, Massimiliano; Olsson, Jonas; Vehviläinen, Bertel; Kok, Kees; Daamen, K.

doi:10.1002/asl.258

Cited by 45 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…This study illustrated the challenge that represent the interpretation, communication and efficient use of probabilistic forecasts for decision-making (Demeritt et al, 2007;Bruen et al, 2010). We would like to emphasize that the framework of this study is a real-life case and not purely experimental.…”

Section: Challenges In Decision-making Based On Hydrometeorological Fmentioning

confidence: 93%

An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios

Addor

Jaun

Fundel

et al. 2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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116

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Abstract. The Sihl River flows through Zurich, Switzerland's most populated city, for which it represents the largest flood threat. To anticipate extreme discharge events and provide decision support in case of flood risk, a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) was launched operationally in 2008. This model chain relies on limitedarea atmospheric forecasts provided by the deterministic model COSMO-7 and the probabilistic model COSMO-LEPS. These atmospheric forecasts are used to force a semidistributed hydrological model (PREVAH), coupled to a hydraulic model (FLORIS). The resulting hydrological forecasts are eventually communicated to the stakeholders involved in the Sihl discharge management. This fully operational setting provides a real framework with which to compare the potential of deterministic and probabilistic discharge forecasts for flood mitigation.To study the suitability of HEPS for small-scale basins and to quantify the added-value conveyed by the probability information, a reforecast was made for the period June 2007 to December 2009 for the Sihl catchment (336 km 2 ). Several metrics support the conclusion that the performance gain can be of up to 2 days lead time for the catchment considered. Brier skill scores show that overall COSMO-LEPS-based hydrological forecasts outperforms their COSMO-7-based counterparts for all the lead times and event intensities considered. The small size of the Sihl catchment does not prevent skillful discharge forecasts, but makes them particularlyCorrespondence to: N. Addor (nans.addor@geo.uzh.ch) dependent on correct precipitation forecasts, as shown by comparisons with a reference run driven by observed meteorological parameters. Our evaluation stresses that the capacity of the model to provide confident and reliable mid-term probability forecasts for high discharges is limited. The two most intense events of the study period are investigated utilising a novel graphical representation of probability forecasts, and are used to generate high discharge scenarios. They highlight challenges for making decisions on the basis of hydrological predictions, and indicate the need for a tool to be used in addition to forecasts to compare the different mitigation actions possible in the Sihl catchment. No definitive conclusion on the model chain capacity to forecast flooding events endangering the city of Zurich could be drawn because of the under-sampling of extreme events. Further research on the form of the reforecasts needed to infer on floods associated to return periods of several decades, centuries, is encouraged.

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Section: Challenges In Decision-making Based On Hydrometeorological Fmentioning

confidence: 93%

An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios

Addor

Jaun

Fundel

et al. 2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

116

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“…In 2008, an early warning system (EWS IFKIS Hydro Sihl) has been installed along the Sihl River valley (Romang et al, 2011;Bruen et al, 2010). The EWS IFKIS is a hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system based on atmospheric forecasts provided by the (deterministic) model COSMO-7 and the (probabilistic) model COSMO-LEPS.…”

Section: Baseline and Alternative Hazard Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards – Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study

Ronco

Bullo

Torresan

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The aim of this paper is the application of the KULTURisk regional risk assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1, Ronco et al., 2014), to the Sihl River basin, in northern Switzerland. Flood-related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying on the Sihl River valley including Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in an urban area, by calibrating the methodology to the site-specific context and features. Risk maps and statistics have been developed using a 300-year return period scenario for six relevant targets exposed to flood risk: people; economic activities: buildings, infrastructure and agriculture; natural and semi-natural systems; and cultural heritage. Finally, the total risk index map has been produced to visualize the spatial pattern of flood risk within the target area and, therefore, to identify and rank areas and hotspots at risk by means of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools. Through a tailored participatory approach, risk maps supplement the consideration of technical experts with the (essential) point of view of relevant stakeholders for the appraisal of the specific scores weighting for the different receptor-relative risks. The total risk maps obtained for the Sihl River case study are associated with the lower classes of risk. In general, higher (relative) risk scores are spatially concentrated in the deeply urbanized city centre and areas that lie just above to river course. Here, predicted injuries and potential fatalities are mainly due to high population density and to the presence of vulnerable people; flooded buildings are mainly classified as continuous and discontinuous urban fabric; flooded roads, pathways and railways, most of them in regards to the Zurich central station (Hauptbahnhof) are at high risk of inundation, causing severe indirect damage. Moreover, the risk pattern for agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems and cultural heritage is relatively less important mainly because the scattered presence of these assets. Finally, the application of the KR-RRA methodology to the Sihl River case study, as well as to several other sites across Europe (not presented here), has demonstrated its flexibility and the possible adaptation of it to different geographical and socioeconomic contexts, depending on data availability and particulars of the sites, and for other (hazard) scenarios.

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“…• An increasing number of hydrological models are now using EPS QPF for operational medium-to long-range forecasts for river flow forecasting and water management purposes Zappa et al, 2010;Bruen et al, 2010).…”

Section: Outcomes Of Cost 731mentioning

confidence: 99%

The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems

Rossa¹,

Liechti

Zappa

et al. 2011

Atmospheric Research

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Publication informationAtmospheric Research, 100 (2-3): 150-167Publisher Elsevier This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT AbstractQuantifying uncertainty in flood forecasting is a difficult task, given the multiple and strongly nonlinear model components involved in such a system. Much effort has been and is being invested in the quest of dealing with uncertain precipitation observations and forecasts and the propagation of such uncertainties through hydrological and hydraulic models predicting river discharges and risk for inundation. The COST 731 Action is one of these and constitutes a European initiative which deals with the quantification of forecast uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecast systems.COST 731 addresses three major lines of development: (1) combining meteorological and hydrological models to form a forecast chain, (2) propagating uncertainty information through this chain and make it available to end users in a suitable form, (3)

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Visualizing flood forecasting uncertainty: some current European EPS platforms—COST731 working group 3

Cited by 45 publications

References 14 publications

An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios

An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios

KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards – Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study

The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems

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