Visualizing National Electrification Scenarios for Sub-Saharan African Countries

Bertheau, Paul; Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon; Cader, Catherina; Breyer, Christian; Blechinger, Philipp

doi:10.3390/en10111899

Cited by 52 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Thus, off-grid solutions based on RE technology, particularly solar PV based technologies (solar home systems (SHS) and mini-grids), provide solutions in areas where grid extension is not cost-effective [76]. According to Bertheau et al [77], two scenarios were modelled to understand the effects on future grid extension plans in SSA. Results of the modelling reveals that about 96 million Nigerians are un-electrified.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways to a fully sustainable electricity supply for Nigeria in the mid-term future

Oyewo

Aghahosseini

Bogdanov

et al. 2018

Energy Conversion and Management

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Ambitious actions focused on rapid defossilisation of today's energy systems require greater urgency, in order to avert unmanageable impacts of climate change. Transitioning to a cost-effective and carbon-neutral energy system in Nigeria and across the globe by the second half of this century is vital. This study explores a paradigmatic pathway to a fully sustainable energy system for Nigeria, by 2050. The research approach is to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% renewable energy based power system for Nigeria, using a linear optimisation model. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year. The country researched is structured into 6 sub-regions. The optimisation for each of the 5-year time periods is carried out based on assumed costs and technological status until 2050 for all energy technologies involved. The levelised cost of electricity declines from 54 €/MWh in 2015 to 46 €/MWh in 2050 for the power sector in the Best Policy Scenario and further declines to 35 €/MWh with sector coupling. Whereas, the cost of electricity increased to 75 €/MWh in the Current Policy Scenario without greenhouse gas emission cost. The results clearly reveal that integrating a renewable energy technology mix with a wide variety of storage technologies is the most competitive and least cost electricity option for Nigeria in the mid-term future, as indicated by the Best Policy Scenario. In particular, the compatibility and predominant role of solar photovoltaics and batteries is paramount towards a rapid transition of Nigeria's power sector, due to highly favourable economics. This study concludes with the implications of a stable and supportive policy environment, transitioning to a defossiliated energy system in Nigeria could be achieved in the mid-term future. This study is the first of its kind in full hourly resolution for Nigeria, and demonstrates the need for carrying out detailed analyses in examining gaps in energy transition understanding based on various policy constraints for developing countries in comparable climates.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways to a fully sustainable electricity supply for Nigeria in the mid-term future

Oyewo

Aghahosseini

Bogdanov

et al. 2018

Energy Conversion and Management

Self Cite

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“…In fact, there is a thin line of separation between population growth and the high demand for electricity access in Africa. About 630 million people in Africa do not have access to electricity, with a low electrification rate of about 35% (Bertheau et al 2017). According to the World Bank, about 25 Sub-Saharan African countries are facing an energy crisis evidenced by continuing blackouts (Hancock 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble

et al. 2020

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Renewable energy is key for the development of African countries, and knowing the best location for the implementation of solar and wind energy projects is important within this context. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on solar and wind energy potential over Africa under low end (RCP2.6) and high end (RCP8.5) emission scenarios using a set of new high resolution (25 km) simulations with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) produced as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative. The projections focus on two periods: (i) the near future (2021-2040) and ii) the mid-century future (2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054)(2055)(2056)(2057)(2058)(2059)(2060). The performance of the RegCM4 ensemble mean (Rmean) in simulating relevant present climate variables (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) is first evaluated with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite-based data. The Rmean reproduces reasonably well the observed spatial patterns of solar irradiance, air temperature, total cloud cover, wind speed at 100 m above the ground level, photovoltaic power potential (PVP), concentrated solar power output (CSPOUT) and wind power density (WPD) over Africa, though some biases are still evident, especially for cloud-related variables. For the future climate, the sign of the changes is consistent in both scenarios but with more intense magnitude in the middle of the century RCP8.5 scenario. Considering the energy variables, the Rmean projects a general decrease in PVP, which is more pronounced in the mid-century future and under RCP8.5 (up to 2%). Similarly, a general increase in CSPOUT (up to 2%) is projected over the continent under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The projection in WPD shows a similar change (predominant increase) in the near and mid-century future slices under both RCPs with a maximum increase of 20%. The present study suggests that the RCP2.6 emission scenario, in general, favours the implementation of renewable energy in Africa compared to the RCP8.5.

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“…Others have evaluated a substantial potential role for microgrids in promoting energy access via rural electrification [89][90][91]. Venkataramanan and Marnay pointed to microutility models pioneered in Bangladesh as "evidence of the relative ease with which grass-roots solar electrification projects can be carried out without heavily subsidized large capital development assistance, when appropriately integrated with community economic development.…”

Section: The Potential Role Of Microgrids In Operationalizing Energy mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Emerging Potential of Microgrids in the Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Systems

et al. 2021

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International, national, and subnational laws and policies call for rapidly decarbonizing energy systems around the globe. This effort relies heavily on renewable electricity and calls for a transition that is: (i) flexible enough to accommodate existing and new electricity end uses and users; (ii) resilient in response to climate change and other threats to electricity infrastructure; (iii) cost-effective in comparison to alternatives; and (iv) just in the face of energy systems that are often the result of—or the cause of—procedural, distributive, and historical injustices. Acknowledging the intertwined roles of technology and policy, this work provides a cross-disciplinary review of how microgrids may contribute to renewable electricity systems that are flexible, resilient, cost-effective, and just (including illustrative examples from Korea, California, New York, the European Union, and elsewhere). Following this review of generalized microgrid characteristics, we more closely examine the role and potential of microgrids in two United States jurisdictions that have adopted 100% renewable electricity standards (Hawai‘i and Puerto Rico), and which are actively developing regulatory regimes putatively designed to enable renewable microgrids. Collectively, this review shows that although microgrids have the potential to support the transition to 100% renewable electricity in a variety of ways, the emerging policy structures require substantial further development to operationalize that potential. We conclude that unresolved fundamental policy tensions arise from justice considerations, such as how to distribute the benefits and burdens of microgrid infrastructure, rather than from technical questions about microgrid topologies and operating characteristics. Nonetheless, technical and quantitative future research will be necessary to assist regulators as they develop microgrid policies. In particular, there is a need to develop socio–techno–economic analyses of cost-effectiveness, which consider a broad range of potential benefits and costs.

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Visualizing National Electrification Scenarios for Sub-Saharan African Countries

Cited by 52 publications

References 39 publications

Pathways to a fully sustainable electricity supply for Nigeria in the mid-term future

Pathways to a fully sustainable electricity supply for Nigeria in the mid-term future

Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble

The Emerging Potential of Microgrids in the Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Systems

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