Visualizing the Impact of Europe’s Slow COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout

Abstract

the WHO Regional Office for Europe issued a formal statement of concern regarding the slow vaccine rollout across Europe [1]. The WHO noted that the "Region remains the second most affected by SARS-CoV-2 of all the world's regions" which was worrying, especially because the more transmissible B.1.1.7 was now dominant in the region [1]. It further contrasted this with the experiences of the UK, by noting that according to data from Public Health England, "COVID-19 vaccines have saved, at the very least, over 6,000 lives among people over 70 since vaccination started in December 2020". Beyond such statements and a general awareness that many countries within the EU, in particular, lag behind in terms of vaccination, the impact of this policy failure remains poorly understood. One issue that appears to be hampering a European-wide debate regarding this issue, is the fact that globally the link between curbing COVID-19 and progress in vaccination is not entirely straightforward. Here, we will attempt to highlight the human cost of this EU policy failure by reference to recent patterns of COVID-19 deaths across several large EU countries.Globally, COVID-19 vaccination rates differ widely, and as of 3 rd March 2021, countries such as Israel, Chile, the UK, and also the EU member state, Hungary, are among the top performers in terms of vaccine rollout with administered rates of 130, 78, 75 and 63 doses per 100 people, respectively [2]. As of 2 nd May 2021, the rolling seven-day average for daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths, nonetheless, is very high for Hungary with 17.4 per million inhabitants, above average for Chile with 5.27, and very significantly below the global average for the UK with 0.24, and Israel with 0.23 deaths per million [3]. For the UK and Israel, the recent data on COVID-19 deaths reflect the actual impact of vaccination on COVID-19 risk because those two countries started vaccination on a major scale toward the end of December 2020 and eased