Volcanic seismicity beneath Chuginadak Island, Alaska (Cleveland and Tana volcanoes): Implications for magma dynamics and eruption forecasting

Power, John A.; Roman, Diana C.; Lyons, J. J.; Haney, Matthew M.; Rasmussen, Daniel J.; Plank, Terry; Nicolaysen, K. P.; Izbekov, Pavel; Werner, C. A.; Kaufman, A. M.

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107182

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Considering the history of explosions in recent weeks, months, or even years along with the short-term (5-day) degassing behavior might then improve the forecast accuracy. This could be implemented in an approach similar to the Short-Term Average/Long-Term Average (STA/LTA) algorithms which are commonly used in event-detection applications based on geophysical data (Withers et al, 1998;Trnkoczy, 2012;Brill et al, 2018;Power et al, 2021;. Alternatively, it may be beneficial to repeat the training process intermittently, either at preset time intervals or whenever volcanic activity is deemed to have entered a new phase.…”

Section: Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remote sensing of volcanic gas emissions from the ground, air, and space

2023

Frontiers Research Topics

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Frontiers is more than just an open access publisher of scholarly articles: it is a pioneering approach to the world of academia, radically improving the way scholarly research is managed. The grand vision of Frontiers is a world where all people have an equal opportunity to seek, share and generate knowledge. Frontiers provides immediate and permanent online open access to all its publications, but this alone is not enough to realize our grand goals. Frontiers journal seriesThe Frontiers journal series is a multi-tier and interdisciplinary set of openaccess, online journals, promising a paradigm shift from the current review, selection and dissemination processes in academic publishing. All Frontiers journals are driven by researchers for researchers; therefore, they constitute a service to the scholarly community. At the same time, the Frontiers journal series operates on a revolutionary invention, the tiered publishing system, initially addressing specific communities of scholars, and gradually climbing up to broader public understanding, thus serving the interests of the lay society, too. Dedication to qualityEach Frontiers article is a landmark of the highest quality, thanks to genuinely collaborative interactions between authors and review editors, who include some of the world's best academicians. Research must be certified by peers before entering a stream of knowledge that may eventually reach the public -and shape society; therefore, Frontiers only applies the most rigorous and unbiased reviews. Frontiers revolutionizes research publishing by freely delivering the most outstanding research, evaluated with no bias from both the academic and social point of view. By applying the most advanced information technologies, Frontiers is catapulting scholarly publishing into a new generation. What are Frontiers Research Topics?Frontiers Research Topics are very popular trademarks of the Frontiers journals series: they are collections of at least ten articles, all centered on a particular subject. With their unique mix of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Frontiers Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area.

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Section: Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remote sensing of volcanic gas emissions from the ground, air, and space

2023

Frontiers Research Topics

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“…Considering the history of explosions in recent weeks, months, or even years along with the short-term (5-day) degassing behavior might then improve the forecast accuracy. This could be implemented in an approach similar to the Short-Term Average/Long-Term Average (STA/LTA) algorithms which are commonly used in event-detection applications based on geophysical data (Withers et al, 1998;Trnkoczy, 2012;Brill et al, 2018;Power et al, 2021;Viccaro et al, 2021). Alternatively, it may be beneficial to repeat the training process intermittently, either at preset time intervals or whenever volcanic activity is deemed to have entered a new phase.…”

Section: Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting explosions at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia, based on SO2 emission rates

Kunrat¹,

Kern

Alfianti³

et al. 2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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Dome-building volcanic eruptions are often associated with frequent Vulcanian explosions, which constitute a substantial threat to proximal communities. One proposed mechanism driving such explosions is the sealing of the shallow volcanic system followed by pressurization due to gas accumulation beneath the seal. We investigate this hypothesis at Sinabung Volcano (Sumatra, Indonesia), which has been in a state of eruption since August 2010. In 2013, the volcano began erupting a lava dome and lava flow, and frequent explosions produced eruptive columns that rose many kilometers into the atmosphere and at times sent pyroclastic density currents down the southeast flanks. A network of scanning Differential Optical Absorption Spectrometers (DOAS) was installed on the volcano’s eastern flank in 2016 to continuously monitor SO2 emission rates during daytime hours. Analysis of the DOAS data from October 2016 to September 2017 revealed that passive SO2 emissions were generally lower in the 5 days leading up to explosive events (∼100 t/d) than was common in 5-day periods leading up to days on which no explosions occurred (∼200 t/d). The variability of passive SO2 emissions, expressed as the standard deviation, also took on a slightly wider range of values before days with explosions (0–103 t/d at 1-sigma) than before days without explosions (43–117 t/d). These observations are consistent with the aforementioned seal-failure model, where the sealing of the volcanic conduit blocks gas emissions and leads to pressurization and potential Vulcanian explosions. We develop a forecasting methodology that allows calculation of a relative daily explosion probability based solely on measurements of the SO2 emission rate in the preceding days. We then calculate forecast explosion probabilities for the remaining SO2 emissions dataset (October 2017—September 2021). While the absolute accuracy of forecast explosion probabilities is variable, the method can inform the probability of an explosion occurring relative to that on other days in each test period. This information can be used operationally by volcano observatories to assess relative risk. The SO2 emissions-based forecasting method is likely applicable to other open vent volcanoes experiencing dome-forming eruptions.

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