Volume, evolution, and sedimentation of future glacier lakes in Switzerland over the 21st century

Steffen, Tim; Huss, Matthias; Estermann, Rebekka; Hodel, Elias; Farinotti, Daniel

doi:10.5194/esurf-10-723-2022

Cited by 20 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 96 publications

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“…A particularly debated question is whether anthropogenic climate change causes GLOF hazards and, if so, to what extent (Table 4). Recent research has established clear causality from greenhouse gas emissions to glacier shrinkage, lake growth and formation and, possibly, to GLOF hazard (Harrison et al, 2018;Huggel et al, 2020a;Stuart-Smith et al, 2021). This research is now starting to inform climate litigation.…”

Section: Attribution Of Glof Events To Anthropogenic Climate Changementioning

confidence: 97%

“…Considering sustained glacier retreat under different representative concentration pathways or complete deglaciation, several recent studies have attempted to locate potential future lakes and quantify their volumes, for instance in the Swiss Alps (Gharehchahi et al, 2020), in the Austrian Alps (Otto et al, 2021), in High Mountain Asia (Furian et al, 2021;Zheng et al, 2021c) and on the global scale (Frey et al, 2021). Recent progress also highlights the need to consider the impacts of increasing sedimentation on future glacial lakes under a changing climate (Li et al, 2021;Steffen et al, 2022).…”

Section: Recent Progress In Lake and Glof Inventoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Observed trends and progress -Human dimensions are generally underrepresented in GLOF papers covered by WOS and Scopus databases, partially reflecting the publishing paradigm of individual disciplines (for instance, a tendency towards publishing books in the social science domain) -Recently increased focus on GLOF attribution to (anthropogenic) climate change (see Sect. 4.7), with natural scientists generally driving this research and only at times involving social science or humanities researchers (Harrison et al, 2018;Huggel et al, 2020a;Stuart-Smith et al, 2021) Identified challenges -Better consideration and appreciation of cultural and spiritual values of glacier lakes and high-mountain environments and local and indigenous knowledge in GLOF research (Lambert and Scott, 2019;Abdel-Fattah et al, 2021;Matti and Ögmundardóttir, 2021;Haeberli and Drenkhan, 2022) -More sustained, detailed work needed to understand diverse and intersecting drivers of risk and vulnerabilities in communities (Matti et al, 2022b;see Sect. 4.6) to reveal how societal variables making diverse populations vulnerable overall intertwine with GLOF risks (Carey et al, 2020) -The politics and cultures of GLOF risk management and responses are only partially understood and analysed (Moulton et al, 2021) -Linking GLOF occurrence patterns with anthropogenic climate change signal (Roe et al, 2021;see Sect.…”

Section: Glofs and Human Dimension Contextsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4.6); avoid research colonialism (come, do research and leave) and involve local researchers -Employment of integrated, holistic, interdisciplinary approaches (Carey et al, 2012;Gall et al, 2015) and consideration of overlooked dimensions and aspects (e.g. spiritual and cultural), knowledge co-production and exchange -Development of robust methods (statistical methods and process-based models) for attributing GLOF occurrence and impacts to anthropogenic climate change (Stuart-Smith et al, 2021) guage, geographical location, and other socioeconomic variables specific to places and historical contexts (Gagné, 2019;Sherry et al, 2018;Haverkamp, 2021;Carey, 2010). Mountain communities are often distant from cities and centres of power, making them marginalized politically and neglected when it comes to infrastructure, hazard mitigation, government assistance, health care, education and economic investments.…”

Section: Glofs and Human Dimension Contextsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Emmer

Allen

Carey

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7–9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs – timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change.

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Section: Attribution Of Glof Events To Anthropogenic Climate Changementioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Recent Progress In Lake and Glof Inventoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Glofs and Human Dimension Contextsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Glofs and Human Dimension Contextsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Emmer

Allen

Carey

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…the possible deposition of moraine on top of the bedrock, creating a higher dam structure, is not considered. Likewise, in keeping with a worst-case approach, we do not consider sediment deposition into the lake that will potentially reduce the volume and longevity of the lake (Steffen et al, 2022). Beyond its potential size, this overdeepening was selected owing to its position in an area of low surface gradient behind a pronounced terminal moraine, beneath a tongue where supraglacial ponds are already developing, and at an elevation that is lower than other overdeepenings in the area.…”

Section: Avalanche and Glof Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin

Allen

Sattar

King

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major concern throughout High Mountain Asia, where societal impacts can extend far downstream. This is particularly true for transboundary Himalayan basins, where risks are expected to further increase as new lakes develop. Given the need for anticipatory approaches to disaster risk reduction, this study aims to demonstrate how the threat from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that of worst-case scenarios from current lakes, as well as how this information is relevant for disaster risk management. We have focused on two previously identified dangerous lakes (Galongco and Jialongco), comparing the timing and magnitude of simulated worst-case outburst events from these lakes both in the Tibetan town of Nyalam and downstream at the border with Nepal. In addition, a future scenario has been assessed, whereby an avalanche-triggered GLOF was simulated for a potential large new lake forming upstream of Nyalam. Results show that large (>20×106 m3) rock and/or ice avalanches could generate GLOF discharges at the border with Nepal that are more than 15 times larger than what has been observed previously or anticipated based on more gradual breach simulations. For all assessed lakes, warning times in Nyalam would be only 5–11 min and 30 min at the border. Recent remedial measures undertaken to lower the water level at Jialongco would have little influence on downstream impacts resulting from a very large-magnitude GLOF, particularly in Nyalam where there has been significant development of infrastructure directly within the high-intensity flood zone. Based on these findings, a comprehensive approach to disaster risk management is called for, combining early warning systems with effective land use zoning and programmes to build local response capacities. Such approaches would address the current drivers of GLOF risk in the basin while remaining robust in the face of worst-case, catastrophic outburst events that become more likely under a warming climate.

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Evolution, sedimentation and thermal state of the emerging pro‐glacial lakes at Witenwasserengletscher, Switzerland

Hardmeier,

Schmidheiny,

Suremann

et al. 2024

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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As glaciers retreat worldwide, local basal depressions are exposed where new pro‐glacial lakes are forming. Although the formation of such new lakes has been mapped widely, the impact of their interaction with the glacier on sediment dynamics and the thermal state is rarely studied. At the example of Witenwasserengletscher, Switzerland, we use historic aerial imagery and a bathymetric survey to investigate in detail the interaction of glacier retreat, lake formation and sedimentation. Three lakes have emerged since the mid‐1990s with mean depths between 1.25 and 6 m. The deepest lake lost contact to the ice in 2009 with a delta forming from mobilized sub‐glacial sediment. Phases of direct contact of the glacier with the lakes are found to increase terminus retreat and affect the thermal state and sedimentation. In summer, lake water temperatures in these small ice‐contact lakes stay close to 0°C, whereas the disconnected eastern lake shows temperatures consistently over 6°C. Temperature profiles from 2021 show that after losing ice contact, warm sediment‐rich glacial water forms an underflow that is breaking through the summertime stratification with warm water over cold water. In this case, density stratification is dominated by suspended sediment rather than temperature. Sedimentation shows a high multiannual variability and is dependent on a multitude of factors, ultimately on the routing of glacial streams. These tend to migrate towards the centre of the valley as the glacier retreats. Our study shows that during deglaciation lake evolution, sediment redistribution and the thermal state are highly dynamic and pro‐glacial lakes strongly affect the sediment evolution and may thereby impact on the ecosystem in pro‐glacial streams.

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Volume, evolution, and sedimentation of future glacier lakes in Switzerland over the 21st century

Cited by 20 publications

References 96 publications

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin

Evolution, sedimentation and thermal state of the emerging pro‐glacial lakes at Witenwasserengletscher, Switzerland

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