Voting Green^*

Abstract

Objectives. Economics, partisanship, and demographics have all been identified as linked to support for environmental protection. The principal objective of this study is to extend the extant literature by using a larger data set and a variety of methods. Methods. We use variety of statistical methods to test measures of party strength, demographics, and economics against county-level data from 29 environmental initiative elections in 13 states. Results. Democratic partisanship is the most consistent predictor of aggregate support for environmental measures. This trend holds through pooled, individual-level, and ecological inference analysis. Median family income and income squared are consistently significant, as is education. Conclusion. Based on these data, we reach three general conclusions. First, while several variables are consistently significant, party strength is the most consistent predictor of pro-environmental voting across states and initiatives. Second, our analyses suggest that limiting analyses to data from a single state or region may have important implications for statistical inferences. Lastly, a preliminary analysis using methods of ecological inference suggests that the aggregate results are robust to ecological problems.A number of recent studies have examined environmental voting behavior by using county-level election returns (cf. Kahn and Matsusaka, 1997;Press, 2003). Most of these studies use a single state or region to test their arguments, thus limiting the general applicability of the extant literature. We expand on the extant literature in three ways: first, we use a national sample of 29 initiatives from 13 states. Second, we demonstrate that using a limited data set can have serious inferential implications. Finally, we show that although using aggregate-level data exposes researchers to the potential for an ecological fallacy, new techniques and a careful examination of the data provide additional confidence in aggregate-level results. These findings generally show consistent aggregate relationships across analyses and suggest that aggregate empirical results are essential to making general theoretical claims. We begin our analysis with a review of the literature, followed by n Direct correspondence to Mirya Holman, 2808 Lexington St., Durham, NC 27707 hmirya.holman.@cgu.edui. Mirya Holman will share all data and coding information with those who wish to replicate this study.

Communicating Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Efforts in American Cities

“…This measure accounts for risks associated with heat, cold, flooding, drought, and sea level rise. Consistent with scholarship from political science [44], we proxy voter partisanship with the the county-level vote share in presidential elections. More specifically, we follow Boussalis et al [29] and rely on the proportion of votes for President Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election as a measure of the Democratic leaning in a city.…”

Climate change communication from cities in the USA

“…An analysis of the 115th U.S. Congress reveals how 59% of House Republicans and 73% of Republican Senators publicly deny the existence of climate change, that humans are causing it, and/or that climate scientists overwhelmingly agree on the these points (Koronowski 2017). Beyond climate change, more general attitudes about environmental protection have also been connected to partisanship, with Democratic areas being more likely to support environmental protection (Coan and Holman 2008). Mayors of cities in more liberal locales should be more likely to discuss climate change in their press releases.…”

“…Economic recessions may induce people to prioritize economic well-being over environmental security (e.g. Inglehart 1995, Guber 2003, Scruggs and Benegal 2012, Shum 2012, Coan and Holman 2008. Unemployment, for example, is negatively related with public concern for climate change (Kahn and Kotchen 2011, Brulle et al 2012, Scruggs and Benegal 2012.…”

When Legitimacy Shapes Environmentally Responsible Behaviors: Considering Exposure to University Sustainability Initiatives

“…Their cohort is 57% female, 43% male, 47% Caucasian, 24% Asian, 11% African American, 4% Hispanic, 7% Non-US citizen, and 7% unknown. Coan and Holman have pointed out limitations of analyzing data from a single location to determine sustainable behaviors [30]. As a destination university, however, our participants come from a variety of locations: 40% from the Northeast US, 35% from the South, 10% from the West, 15% from the Midwest, and 3% outside the US.…”