Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

Smith, Joel B.; Huq, Saleemul; Lenhart, Stephanie; Mata, Luis; Nemešová, Ivana; Toure, Sekou

doi:10.1007/978-94-017-3653-4

Cited by 28 publications

References 5 publications

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Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran

Tabari

Abghari

Talaee

2012

Hydrological Processes

204

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Abstract:Drought, a normal recurrent event in arid and semiarid lands such as Iran, is typically of a temporary nature usually leaving little permanent aftermath. In the current study, the rainfall and drought severity time series were analyzed at 10 stations in the eastern half of Iran for the period 1966-2005. The drought severity was computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for a 12-month timescale. The trend analyses of the data were also performed using the Kendall and Spearman tests. The results of this study showed that the rainfall and drought severity data had high variations to average values in the study period, and these variations increased with increasing aridity towards the south of the study area. The negative serial correlations found in the seasonal and annual rainfall time series were mostly insignificant. The trend tests detected a significant decreasing trend in the spring rainfall series of Birjand station at the rate of 8.56 mm per season per decade and a significant increasing trend in the summer rainfall series of Torbateheydarieh station at the rate of 0.14 mm per season per decade, whereas the rest of the trends were insignificant. Furthermore, the 12-month values of the standardized precipitation index decreased at all the stations except Zabol during the past four decades. During the study period, all of the stations experienced at least one extreme drought which mainly occurred in the winter season.

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Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran

Tabari

Abghari

Talaee

2012

Hydrological Processes

204

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Using drought indices to assess climate change impacts on drought conditions in the northeast of Iran (case study: Kashafrood basin)

Sayari

Aval

Alizadeh

et al. 2012

Meteorological Applications

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Drought has significantly affected environmental and socio-economic conditions in Iran. In this study three drought indices were used for monitoring drought intensity and duration in the Kashafrood basin (northeast Iran). The standardized precipitation Index (SPI), Precipitation Index Percent of Normal (PNPI) and Agricultural Rainfall Index (ARI) were calculated for the base period . All these indices were used to assess future drought events in the Kashafrood basin under climate change attributed to low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES B2 and A2, respectively) for three periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2100). Projected changes in precipitation, temperature and potential evaporation were simulated by statistical downscaling of HadCM3 outputs. The main results showed: (1) slight increase in precipitation means, around 2.2-5.4% under the A2 scenario and 6.8 and 8.6% under the B2 scenario: (2) slight increase in maximum temperature, around 4.6-5.6°C for the A2 scenario and 4.25 and 4.6°C under the B2 scenario; (3) slight increase in minimum temperature, around 1.6-1.9°C under the A2 scenario and 1 and 2.23°C under the B2 scenario, and, (4) higher drought frequency associated with global warming was demonstrated by all indices under both scenarios. Such an increase in drought frequency would have major implications for natural resource management, water security planning, water demand management strategies and drought relief payments.

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Case study and analogue methodologies in climate change vulnerability research

Ford

Keskitalo

Smith

et al. 2010

WIREs Climate Change

244

197

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Assessing vulnerability is an important component of human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) research. Vulnerability assessments identify and characterizewho and what are sensitive to climatic risks and why, characterize adaptive capacity and its determinants, and identify opportunities for adaptation. This paper examines the importance of case study and analogue methodologies in vulnerability research, reviews the historical evolution of the two methodologies in the HDCC field, and identifies ways in which they can be used to increase our understanding of vulnerability. Case studies involve in-depth place-based research that focuses on a particular exposure unit (e.g., community, industry, etc.) to characterize vulnerability and its determinants. Temporal analogues use past and present experiences and responses to climatic variability, change and extremes to provide insights for vulnerability to climate change; spatial analogues involve conducting research in one region and identifying parallels to how another region might be affected by climate change. Vulnerability research that uses case studies and analogues can help to develop an understanding of the determinants of vulnerability and how they interact, and identify opportunities to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity to current and future climate risks. This information can assist policy makers in developing adaptation plans and to mainstream climate change adaptation into other policy-and decision-making processes. 

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Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

Cited by 28 publications

References 5 publications

Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran

Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran

Using drought indices to assess climate change impacts on drought conditions in the northeast of Iran (case study: Kashafrood basin)

Case study and analogue methodologies in climate change vulnerability research

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