Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Fringe Villages of Madhya Pradesh, India for Planning Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

This study aims to assess the climate change vulnerability of forest fringe villages of Madhya Pradesh, India, and to identify the major drivers of vulnerability, which could help to develop effective adaptation strategies. A total of 325 households spread in 29 villages of Hoshangabad, and Mandla districts were chosen for primary data collection during the summer of 2015. The selection of villages and households was carried out through stratified random sampling and systematic random sampling, respectively. The vulnerability index (score) was developed and analyzed with respect to the different socioeconomic parameters. The analysis revealed that it is not the social class of a household but the economic condition, level of education, and type of occupation/livelihood of the members of a household that are significant factors influencing the vulnerability of a household. Such findings suggest that government programs need to be designed to address the welfare of all social classes in the forest fringe villages. The study has significance in terms of providing a framework for prioritizing target households for different programs related to vulnerability reduction in the forest fringe areas.Sustainability 2020, 12, 1253 2 of 17 even more vulnerable. Therefore, climate change vulnerability assessment of forest-dependent people is important to design suitable adaptation strategies [8,9].Globally, studies have attempted to establish a link between climate change and poverty, framing it in terms of vulnerabilities, accounting for one's exposure, and the capacity to adapt to climate risk [2]. The vulnerability due to climate change has three deterministic components, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity [10]. Exposure cannot be altered much at the household level as it is a climatic variation; however, the adaptive capacity and sensitivity of people can be improved to help them cope with the climatic vulnerability and reduce the impact of exposure [11]. Moreover, the data on climate variables are at the macro level; study at the micro-level has used adaptive capacity alone to assess the vulnerability [12,13]. Adaptive capacity refers to relatively longer-term or more sustainable adjustments that can modify a system's sensitivity and exposure to a disturbance [14]. The socioeconomic status of the household influences the capacity to cope with climate change vulnerability [15,16]. However, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report has given more emphasis to mapping and managing the risks of climate change impacts resulting from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazards, whereas the previous report emphasized managing vulnerability based on measuring exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity [2,3].In India, around two-thirds of the population live in rural areas and are predominantly dependent on climate-sensitive sectors, especially agriculture and forestry [17]. The projected mean annual temperature of India has increased by 0.51 • C per 100 years and 0.2 • C per decade , with a more pronounced increase...

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