Vulnerability of basins and watersheds in Mexico to global climate change

Mendoza, V. M.; Villanueva, E. E.; Adem, Julián

doi:10.3354/cr009139

Cited by 33 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Statistical downscaling methods also indicate that summer rainfall might decrease in most of the country and increase during winter in the northern region, similar to those conditions experienced during strong El Niño events (Magaña et al, 1997. The models used to test the sensitivity of different sectors in different regions (Villers et al, 1997;Mendoza et al, 1997;Conde et al, 1997), project that the coastal zones and the northern and central regions could be the most vulnerable to climate change. In those studies, socioeconomic conditions were not taken into account to evaluate the possible social consequences and the possible strategies that could be develop to overcome the climatic change impacts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Case of Study of Coffee Production in Veracruz, Mexico

et al. 2006

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This paper explores the relation between coffee production and climatic and economic variables in Veracruz in order to estimate the potential impacts of climate change. For this purpose, an econometric model is developed in terms of those variables. The model is validated by means of statistical analysis, and then used to project coffee production under different climatic conditions. Climate change scenarios are produced considering that the observed trends of climate variables will continue to prevail until the year 2020. An approach for constructing simple probability scenarios for future climate variability is presented and used to assess possible impacts of climate change beyond what is expected from changes in mean values.The model shows that temperature is the most relevant climatic factor for coffee production, since production responds significantly to seasonal temperature patterns. The results for the projected climate change conditions for year 2020 indicate that coffee production might not be economically viable for producers, since the model indicates a reduction of 34% of the current production.Although different economic variables (the state and international coffee prices, a producer price index for raw materials for coffee benefit, the national and the USA coffee stocks) were considered as potentially relevant, our model suggests that the state real minimum wage could be regarded as the most important economic variable. Real minimum wage is interpreted here as a proxy for the price of labor employed for coffee production. This activity in Mexico is very labor intensive representing up to 80% of coffee production costs. As expected, increments in the price of such an important production factor increase production costs and have strong negative effects on production. Different assumptions on how real minimum wage could evolve for the year 2020 are considered for developing future production scenarios.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Case of Study of Coffee Production in Veracruz, Mexico

et al. 2006

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“…This growth clearly poses added strains for the region's natural resources. At the same time, under typical scenarios of climate change, there is evidence that the regional water resources required to support the urban population could be adversely impacted (Mendoza et al, 1997). Similarly, from an agricultural perspective, the study area may be a 'regional loser' under climate change, given that the potential for net reductions in crop yields is generally greatest in warmer, low-latitude areas and in semi-arid areas of the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Urbanization and seasonal temperature trends: observational evidence from a data‐sparse part of North America

Englehart

Douglas

2003

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Viewed from the continental or hemispheric perspective, the evidence of warming trends in surface temperatures continues to accumulate. Here, we focus on the detection of seasonal temperature trends at regional and sub-regional space scales. The study region is transnational, extending from the border areas of New Mexico and Texas in the USA, southward into the altiplano of north central Mexico. The analysis considers maximum and minimum temperature records from 21 stations located in a variety of land-use environments ranging from large urban settings to rural areas. The analysis demonstrates that a significant part of the variability in minimum temperatures for stations located in large urban areas is captured by positive linear trend, and thus is likely associated with rapid urbanization within the region. A similar, but comparatively minor, urban effect is also apparent in the maximum temperature records for the warm season (June-September). Aside from the urban influence, the most consistent feature emerging from the analysis is the tendency for station records to exhibit a recent (post -1970) warming trend. It is present across all place sizes, i.e. from large urban to rural stations, and is particularly pronounced for cool-and warm-season minimum temperatures and for warm-season maximum temperatures. This behaviour generally mirrors the temperature trends detected on continental and hemispheric space scales, and thus the onset of this warming regime is broadly consistent with documented changes in large-scale climate modes such as the North Atlantic oscillation and the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation.

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“…The maximum severity (how bad things are) is emphasised for each unsatisfactory state and the probability that the failure with the maximum severity would occur (Cai et al 2003). Vulnerability can be expressed as (1) the average failure (Loucks and Van Beek 2005), (2) the average of maximum shortfalls over all continuous failure periods (Hashimoto et al 1982;McMahon et al 2006) and (3) the probability of exceeding a certain deficit threshold (Mendoza et al 1997). This study uses the first approach, the expected value of deficits, which is the sum of the deficits, D i t , divided by the deficit period, the number of times D i t > 0 occurred.…”

Section: Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability considerations of irrigation systems: A case study of inter-state systems in the Aliyar sub-basin, India

Umadevi¹,

Padikkal

James

2013

ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

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The concept of 'sustainable development' is an integrating idea, and a bridge between conservation and development. This article highlights the use of sustainability indices for evaluating and comparing the water management practices with respect to their sustainability in the sub-basin of the Aliyar interstate irrigation project catering to the irrigation requirements of two southern states of India. An attempt has been made to assess the reliability, resilience, vulnerability and overall sustainability of the total Aliyar sub-basin as the major system, two main canals as one sub-system, five anicuts (regulators) as another sub-system, and the downstream reach catering to the irrigation in the Chitturpuzha Project (CPP) as the third sub-system. The Aliyar project caters to the irrigation water requirement of the semi-arid region of Tamil Nadu State and the humid tropic region of Kerala State. Water shortage is often encountered for irrigation and this leads to interstate water conflicts. The present study is intended to provide general guidelines for the efficient operation of the major system and sub-systems based on a sustainability analysis, comparison of sustainability of different systems, and the decadal performance of the systems. The study is expected to serve as a guideline for similar studies in other command areas aiming at efficient utilisation of water from irrigation projects constructed using public funds.

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Vulnerability of basins and watersheds in Mexico to global climate change

Cited by 33 publications

References 3 publications

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Case of Study of Coffee Production in Veracruz, Mexico

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Case of Study of Coffee Production in Veracruz, Mexico

Urbanization and seasonal temperature trends: observational evidence from a data‐sparse part of North America

Sustainability considerations of irrigation systems: A case study of inter-state systems in the Aliyar sub-basin, India

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