Vulnerability of Bulgarian agriculture to drought and climate variability with focus on rainfed maize systems

Popova, Zornitsa; Ivanova, Maria; Martins, Diogo; Pereira, Luís S.; Doneva, K.; Alexandrov, V.; Kercheva, Milena

doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1215-3

Cited by 35 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Drought is a silent and pervasive hazard, which originates from the deficit of water availability, with devastating impacts on agriculture, water supply and the environment (Dow 2010;Popova et al 2014;Yu et al 2014) causing economic losses (Below et al 2007;Wilhite 2000;Wilhite et al 2007). In comparison with other natural hazards, drought tends to start slowly often without warning, lasts for significant period of time covering large spatial areas, and may linger for years after termination (Lena et al 2013;Mishra and Singh 2010;Rossi et al 1992).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis

et al. 2015

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This paper presents temporal and spatial pattern of drought phenomena in central Nepal using standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple time scales. The study is based on 32 years of monthly precipitation data from 40 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2012. Results indicate that, while there is no distinct trend in regional precipitation, interannual variation is large. Trend analysis of drought index shows that most stations are characterized by increases in both severity and frequency of drought and trend is stronger for longer drought time scales. Over the study period, the summer 123Nat Hazards (2016) 80:1913-1932 DOI 10.1007/s11069-015-2055 season of 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009 and winters 2006, 2008 and 2009 were the worst widespread droughts. These dry periods have a serious impact on agriculture-livestock production of central Nepal. Better understanding of these SPI dynamics could help in understanding the characteristics of droughts and also to develop effective mitigation strategies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis

et al. 2015

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“…In rainfed agriculture, mainly when soils have a small water storage capacity, it may not be possible to overcome impacts of the variability of rainfall as referred for maize [6]. Thus, it is important to develop knowledge on maize water use in western Uruguay and to develop appropriate irrigation scheduling aimed at achieving the potential yields through efficient use of rainfall and irrigation water.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Differently, when focusing single crops, the search for more efficient water use is generally performed through simulation of alternative irrigation schedules which are compared through the respective impacts on total water use, yields and water productivity. With this purpose, both water balance simulation and crop-yield models may be used [6,32,33]. This approach was tested for maize using the soil water balance simulation model SIMDualKc [34], which partitions ET into soil evaporation (E s ) and actual crop transpiration (T c act ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Maize Transpiration, Water Use and Productivity for Developing Improved Supplemental Irrigation Schedules in Western Uruguay to Cope with Climate Variability

Giménez

Petillo

Paredes

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:Various maize irrigation treatments including full and deficit irrigation were used to calibrate and validate the soil water balance and irrigation scheduling model SIMDualKc at Paysandú, western Uruguay. The model adopts the dual crop coefficient approach to partition actual evapotranspiration (ET c act ) into actual transpiration (T c act ) and soil evaporation (E s ). Low errors of estimation were obtained for simulating soil water content (Root mean square errors (RMSE) ď 0.014 cm 3¨c m´3 with calibrated parameters, and RMSE ď 0.023 cm 3¨c m´3 with default parameters). The ratio E s /T c act ranged from 26% to 33% and E s /ET c act varied from 20% to 25%, with higher values when the crop was stressed offering less soil coverage. Due to rainfall regime, runoff and deep percolation were quite large. The Stewarts phasic model was tested and used to predict maize yield from T c act with acceptable errors, in the range of those reported in literature. Water productivity values were high, ranging 1.39 to 2.17 kg¨m´3 and 1.75 to 2.55 kg¨m´3 when considering total water use and crop ET, respectively. Using a 22-year climatic data series, rainfed maize was assessed with poor results for nearly 40% of the years. Differently, alternative supplemental irrigation schedules assessed for the dry and very dry years have shown good results, particularly for mild deficit irrigation. Overall, results show appropriateness for using SIMDualKc to support the irrigation practice.

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“…According to Spinoni et al (2016), CEE has a tendency to exhibit more intensive drying, mainly in spring (Central Europe) and autumn (Eastern Europe) for drought frequency and in all seasons for drought severity. Bulgaria and southern Romania appear particularly vulnerable to water scarcity and drought events and Popova et al (2015), in their study of eight Bulgarian climate regions for 1951-2004, confirmed that agricultural lands had experienced increased vulnerability to water stress.…”

Section: Droughtmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…While Europe overall is not expected to have large problems with self-sufficiency (Fader et al, 2013), projections to 2050 indicate that the CEE will experience the highest increase in competition for water, especially in Bulgaria, Romania and Poland (Stigson et al, 2014;Popova et al, 2015). The climate signal regarding precipitation extremes is not as clear as for temperature extremes (Busuioc et al, 2015), showing a great regional variability.…”

Section: Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Influence on Agriculture and the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Central and Eastern European Countries

Kantor

McLean²,

Kantor

2017

Not Sci Biol

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The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus concept has great potential for understanding a region's vulnerability to climate change. This paper examines individual components that form the supporting pillars of the nexus in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. An overview of specific CEE political environments that govern economic and environmental policies are examined to select several domains representing higher risks to society, environment and economies of selected countries, together with evaluation of extant interlinkages between climate change, agriculture and the WEF nexus. While a variety of studies quantify and analyze climate change impacts on water availability, crop yields, yield variability, or alternative energy needed to mitigate global warming effects, this paper shows there is no clear evidence of a nexus-based integration to help manage or mitigate extreme future climate change-related events in the region. The study provides a model for supporting WEF pillars and advances recommendations for consideration of the nexus approach in relation to climate adaptation.

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Vulnerability of Bulgarian agriculture to drought and climate variability with focus on rainfed maize systems

Cited by 35 publications

References 53 publications

Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis

Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis

Predicting Maize Transpiration, Water Use and Productivity for Developing Improved Supplemental Irrigation Schedules in Western Uruguay to Cope with Climate Variability

Climate Change Influence on Agriculture and the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Central and Eastern European Countries

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