Vulnerability of Calabar Rainfall to Climatic Variability Events: A Critical Factor in Integrated Water Resources Management in the Tropical Coastal Location in Southeastern Nigeria

Abstract

In this study, Calabar annual total rainfall was analysed for trend and climatic variability events with focus on drought occurrence. Monthly rainfall data from in situ measurements over a 41 year period (1972-2012) were used for the study. Standard tests were used to evaluate the trends and variability in annual rainfall. Rainfall variability was estimated as standardized rainfall departures and used to identify and delimitate the dry and wet spell sequences of Calabar rainfall. The rainfall series were analysed for Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using SPSS Version 17 software. The least squares regression plot was executed using Excel 2010 to depict the trend, variability and regression parameters. The average annual rainfall for Calabar is 2984.64 mm with standard deviation of 394.9 mm. 36.59% of the period showed positive SPI while 63.41 % of the period indicated negative SPI values. Wet spell dominated the later part of the period but sandwiched with dry spells whereas dry spell were dominant from 1972 to 1994. The area experienced a non-significant upward trend of 15.21 mm per year over the interval. The SPI values indicate that Calabar experienced distinct inter-annual rainfall cycles that represent mild to extreme droughts and wet spells which are a demonstration of consequential annual rainfall variability. The results underscore the need for effective monitoring of Calabar rainfall for prompt warnings and responses that would guarantee effective risk reduction and management in the run-in to the occurrence of the extreme events. The paper further highlights the need for data-driven approach to policy making in water resources management. This would provide a fascinating insight into the improvement in long-term water resources management in the city and its suburbs.

Modelling Monthly Rainfall of Calabar, Nigeria Using Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Method

“…The research have also shown that the maximum monthly rainfall in Calabar metropolis occur in between the months of July to September while the months with the least rainfall fluctuate between December, January and February. In addition, the maximum and least monthly rainfall in Calabar does not show a steady increase nor decrease from year to year as the values fluctuates irregularly thus, affirming the reports of Amadi et al (2021) and Ekpe (2014).…”