Vulnerability of coastal urban settlements in Jamaica

Ishemo, Amani

doi:10.1108/14777830910963771

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…This is confirmed by the fact that the Caribbean have a multicountry risk pool in place based on parametric insurance (CCRIF SPC, ). Jamaica is one of the largest islands in that region, it is highly vulnerable to natural hazards (Ishemo, ), and availability of disaster data is reasonably good.…”

Section: Motivating Example—parametric Insurance For Jamaican Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Probabilistic Paradigm for the Parametric Insurance of Natural Hazards

et al. 2018

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There is a pressing need for simple and reliable risk transfer mechanisms that can pay out quickly after natural disasters without delays caused by loss estimation, and the need for long historical claims records. One such approach, known as parametric insurance, pays out when a key hazard variable exceeds a predetermined threshold. However, this approach to catastrophe risk, based on making deterministic binary predictions of loss occurrence, is susceptible to basis risk (mismatch between payouts and realized losses). A more defensible approach is to issue probabilistic predictions of loss occurrence, which then allows uncertainty to be properly quantified, communicated, and evaluated. This study proposes a generic probabilistic framework for parametric trigger modeling based on logistic regression, and idealized modeling of potential damage given knowledge of a hazard variable. We also propose various novel methods for evaluating the quality and utility of such predictions as well as more traditional trigger indices. The methodology is demonstrated by application to flood-related disasters in Jamaica from 1998 to 2016 using gridded precipitation data as the hazard variable. A hydrologically motivated transformation is proposed for calculating potential damage from daily rainfall data. Despite the simplicity of the approach, the model has substantial skill at predicting the probability of occurrence of loss days as demonstrated by traditional goodness-of-fit measures (i.e., pseudo-R of 0.55) as well as probabilistic verification diagnostics such as receiver operating characteristics. Using conceptual models of decisionmaker expenses, we also demonstrate that the system can provide considerable utility to involved parties, e.g., insured parties, insurers, and risk managers.

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Section: Motivating Example—parametric Insurance For Jamaican Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Probabilistic Paradigm for the Parametric Insurance of Natural Hazards

et al. 2018

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“…1) hence making it the basin with the highest flood frequency. The growth of most of the major towns ie Kingston, Ocho-Rios, Montego bay and Port Maria were economically driven and ignored the vulnerability of the coastal areas to natural disasters [Ishemo, 2009]. Flash floods affect developing countries in severe ways and hence flood hazard maps should be available for protection of life and infrastructure [Hagen and Lu, 2011].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flooding in Jamaica with assessment of riverine inundation of Port Maria, St Mary

Mandal

Maharaj

2013

Bulletin De La Société Géologique De France

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Flash flooding, from extreme rainfall is one of the major natural disasters affecting Jamaica and other small island states of the Caribbean. Flooding in Jamaica is mainly riverine, coastal and depression with the major coastal towns being affected owing to their location on low lying areas. Such localization is driven by increase in urbanization and tourism along the coastal areas. The present work aims in a broad discussion of the flooding in Jamaica with special reference to riverine flooding of Port Maria, the capital of St Mary, one of the parishes lying in the high rain zone of the island and being affected by repeated events of flooding. Analysis of the extreme rainfall event of November 23 rd -24 th , 2006 shows that it exceeded the 30 yr annual rainfall of the area and the 100 yr return period as calculated from 30 yr annual rainfall data for the island. The Port Maria river lacks a gauging station to monitor flow data and flood discharge peaks. Several methods are used to calculate the run-off in such small ungauged catchments. In this study the Soil Conservation Systems Curve Number (CN) method was used to calculate the run-off from the measured rainfall data using empirical equations. Results show an unprecedented high of 13-14 inches affecting the buildings and other infrastructures, leading to the collapse of a newly constructed bridge over the river Port Maria. The town continues to get flooded from intense short duration rainfall continuing to affect life and property. Flood plain maps exist for the larger watersheds of the island but smaller yet flood prone ones have not been mapped so far. Hence this becomes very important to create a floodplain map showing the extent of the runoff from rainfall with respect to the buildings and other infrastructures of the area. The present work thus aims in creating a spatial distribution map of the runoff from the rainfall measurements aiding in developing a no build zone for this and for other low lying coastal areas of the island.

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Identifying Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Challenges in the Caribbean SIDS: An Urban Morphological Approach

Dhar

2021

The World of Small States

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Vulnerability of coastal urban settlements in Jamaica

Cited by 6 publications

References 4 publications

A Probabilistic Paradigm for the Parametric Insurance of Natural Hazards

A Probabilistic Paradigm for the Parametric Insurance of Natural Hazards

Flooding in Jamaica with assessment of riverine inundation of Port Maria, St Mary

Identifying Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Challenges in the Caribbean SIDS: An Urban Morphological Approach

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