Vulnerability of European reindeer husbandry to global change

Abstract

Reindeer husbandry represents a major land use in the Barents region, and has been predicted to be adversely affected by climate change. This paper considers the likely response of reindeer husbandry to changes both in climate and in socio-economic circumstances in the four countries of the Barents region from 1990 to 2080. Key natural factors include vegetation distribution, and a range of meteorological variables including temperature, wind, snow cover and freezing of rivers. The potential impact of these factors is evaluated quantitatively using the tolerable windows method, the results of which indicate a general but spatially non-uniform decline in the suitability of the region for reindeer husbandry. Relevant socio-economic factors include regional patterns of politics, management and knowledge. A focus on herders' own perceptions of environmental change and flexibility of response, derived particularly from study sites in Russia, suggests that models of vulnerability to climate change should be tempered by paying greater attention to changes in socio-economic factors. When compared with the potential effect of changing these socioeconomic factors, the vulnerability of reindeer husbandry to projected climate change appears to be comparatively small.

Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north

“…Winter forage is however expected to become more limited because of ice-crust formation following frequent zero transitions (Hansen et al 2013, Stien et al 2012, and because of lichens, the preferred winter food of reindeers, being outcompeted (Moen 2008, Rees et al 2008. The net outcome is uncertain and may vary regionally, for example between oceanic and continental areas ).…”

“…At the same time, higher plant productivity and longer growing seasons will make more food available to reindeer during summer, although management of reindeer population density may also affect plant productivity ) and forage composition (Ravolainen et al 2011). In the long run, the observed (Callaghan et al 2013) and expected (Wolf et al 2008a) expansion of trees and shrubs into alpine areas may reduce grazing areas (Rees et al 2008), although reindeer may themselves curb this process , den Herder et al 2008, Ravolainen et al 2014). In the most extreme scenarios of climate change, most of the Barents Region will be warmer than the present climate envelope for reindeer.…”

“…Scenarios for the future of reindeer husbandry are mixed (Rees et al 2008). Reindeer husbandry already operates under marginal economic conditions.…”

“…Moving herds by foot may become more difficult because of unreliable ice and snow conditions, which are of special concern in Russia, where reindeer herds are closely monitored by herders (Rees et al 2008). Such problems may foster modified herding techniques with less transportation and increased use of supplemental forage during winter.…”

“…This capacity is already limited as a result of forestry, leading to up to 50% losses of winter grazing in the Nordic countries (Sandström et al 2006, Horstkotte et al 2011. Reservoirs, roads, and petroleum industries also constrain grazing areas (Rees et al 2008), and increasing infrastructural expansion and ecosystem degradation may further impact reindeer husbandry (Forbes et al 2011).…”