Vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to climate change: A life cycle perspective using expert judgments

McDaniels, Timothy L.; Wilmot, Sarah; Healey, M. C.; Hinch, Scott G.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.08.004

Cited by 37 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…15.3) (Glick et al 2011;Furniss et al 2013). In some cases, the sensitivity of plants, animals, and ecosystems to changes in climate has been documented in the scientific literature or observed in long-term resource inventories (Peterson et al 2011); additional sources of information include traditional knowledge (Laidler et al 2009) and expert knowledge (Alessa et al 2008;McDaniels et al 2010;Moyle et al 2013). Tools have also been developed to quantify ecological responses to future climate scenarios (Joyce and Millar 2014), although natural resource vulnerability assessments have been qualitative as well as quantitative.…”

Section: Assessing Vulnerabilities To Implement Adaptation Actionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Climate Change Risks in Rangeland Systems

Joyce

Marshall

2017

Springer Series on Environmental Management

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The management of rangelands has long involved adapting to climate variability to ensure that economic enterprises remain viable and ecosystems sustainable; climate change brings the potential for change that surpasses the experience of humans within rangeland systems. Adaptation will require an intentionality to address the effects of climate change. Knowledge of vulnerability in these systems provides the foundation upon which to base adaptation strategies; however, few vulnerability assessments have examined and integrated the climate vulnerability of the ecological, economic, and social components of rangeland systems. The capacity of ecosystems, humans, and institutions to adjust to potential damage and to take advantage of opportunities is termed adaptive capacity. Given past attempts to cope with drought, current adaptive capacity is not sufficient to sustain rangeland enterprises under increasing climatic variability. Just as ecosystem development is affected by past events, historical studies suggest that past events in human communities influence future choices in response to day-to-day as well as abrupt events. All adaptation is local and no single adaptation approach works in all settings. A risk framework for adaptation could integrate key vulnerabilities, risk, and hazards, and facilitate development of adaptation actions that address the entire socio-ecological system. Adaptation plans will need to be developed and implemented with recognition of future uncertainty that necessitates an iterative implementation process as new experience and information accumulate. Developing the skills to manage with uncertainty may be a singularly important strategy that landowners, managers, and scientists require to develop adaptive capacity.

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Section: Assessing Vulnerabilities To Implement Adaptation Actionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Climate Change Risks in Rangeland Systems

Joyce

Marshall

2017

Springer Series on Environmental Management

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“…; McDaniels et al . ). Thirdly, we accounted for the multiple dimensions of exposure: duration, intensity and likelihood of effects (Wilson et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Steelhead vulnerability to climate change in the Pacific Northwest

Wade

Beechie

Fleishman

et al. 2013

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Summary1. Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and other Pacific salmon are threatened by unsustainable levels of harvest, genetic introgression from hatchery stocks and degradation or loss of freshwater habitat. Projected climate change is expected to further stress salmon through increases in stream temperatures and altered stream flows. 2. We demonstrate a spatially explicit method for assessing salmon vulnerability to projected climatic changes (scenario for the years 2030-2059), applied here to steelhead salmon across the entire Pacific Northwest (PNW). We considered steelhead exposure to increased temperatures and more extreme high and low flows during four of their primary freshwater life stages: adult migration, spawning, incubation and rearing. Steelhead sensitivity to climate change was estimated on the basis of their regulatory status and the condition of their habitat. We assessed combinations of exposure and sensitivity to suggest actions that may be most effective for reducing steelhead vulnerability to climate change. 3. Our relative ranking of locations suggested that steelhead exposure to increases in temperature will be most widespread in the southern Pacific Northwest, whereas exposure to substantial flow changes will be most widespread in the interior and northern Pacific Northwest. There were few locations where we projected that steelhead had both relatively low exposure and sensitivity to climate change. 4. Synthesis and applications. There are few areas where habitat protection alone is likely to be sufficient to conserve steelhead under the scenario of climate change considered here. Instead, our results suggest the need for coordinated, landscape-scale actions that both increase salmon resilience and ameliorate climate change impacts, such as restoring connectivity of floodplains and high-elevation habitats.

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“…Rather, our primary objective was to assess the difference that evolutionary adaptation might make to relative extinction risk, given a realistic set of demographic parameters and a well-characterized relationship between changing river temperatures and migration survival [19], [20], [38], [52]. The results suggest that evolution could make the biggest difference for future rates of river warming in the 1 to 3°C range (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

et al. 2011

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Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change.

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Vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to climate change: A life cycle perspective using expert judgments

Cited by 37 publications

References 32 publications

Managing Climate Change Risks in Rangeland Systems

Managing Climate Change Risks in Rangeland Systems

Steelhead vulnerability to climate change in the Pacific Northwest

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

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