Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate

Derner, Justin D.; Briske, David D.; Reeves, Matthew C.; Brown–Brandl, T. M.; Meehan, Miranda A.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Travis, William R.; Augustine, David J.; Wilmer, Hailey; Scasta, Derek; Hendrickson, John; Volesky, Jerry D.; Edwards, Laura M.; Peck, Dannele E.

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2029-6

Cited by 67 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 74 publications

(107 reference statements)

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“…In the US, direct livestock losses due to heat stress are estimated to be $2.4 billion annually from decreased reproduction rates, feed consumption, and feed efficiency affecting animal growth rates [34][35][36][37]. Lower forage and feed quality are also expected [38] as increased temperatures negatively affect growth conditions and nutrient availability [39]. In Texas, warmer and drier conditions are expected to reduce total livestock production through lower stocking rates and reduced per animal production.…”

Section: Agricultural Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[ [23][24][25][26][27][28] Texas: warmer and drier climate-reduced crop yields and increased losses due to extreme weather events [29,30] Texas: lower soil moisture leading to increased aquifer pumping and water stress [31] Texas: increased frequency of pest, disease, and invasive species which raises crop management costs [28,32] Livestock Increased heat stress and reduced forage and feed growth [33] Livestock losses from decreased reproduction rates, feed consumption, and feed efficiency affecting animal growth rates [34][35][36][37] Lower forage and feed quality due to increased temperatures affecting growth and nutrient availability [38,39] Texas: lower stocking rates and reduced per animal production due to warmer and drier conditions [33] Texas: increased supplemental feeding due to lower grassland growth rates, quality, and acreage with the expansion of woody plants [40] Texas: decreased animal productivity due to the expansion and greater incidence of disease, ectoparasites, and other pests [30,40,41] Supply Chain…”

Section: Climate Impacts On Agriculture Citationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating Agriculture and Ecosystems to Find Suitable Adaptations to Climate Change

Thayer

Vargas

Castellanos

et al. 2020

Climate

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Climate change is altering agricultural production and ecosystems around the world. Future projections indicate that additional change is expected in the coming decades, forcing individuals and communities to respond and adapt. Current research efforts typically examine climate change effects and possible adaptations but fail to integrate agriculture and ecosystems. This failure to jointly consider these systems and associated externalities may underestimate climate change impacts or cause adaptation implementation surprises, such as causing adaptation status of some groups or ecosystems to be worsened. This work describes and motivates reasons why ecosystems and agriculture adaptation require an integrated analytical approach. Synthesis of current literature and examples from Texas are used to explain concepts and current challenges. Texas is chosen because of its high agricultural output that is produced in close interrelationship with the surrounding semi-arid ecosystem. We conclude that future effect and adaptation analyses would be wise to jointly consider ecosystems and agriculture. Existing paradigms and useful methodology can be transplanted from the sustainable agriculture and ecosystem service literature to explore alternatives for climate adaptation and incentivization of private agriculturalists and consumers. Researchers are encouraged to adopt integrated modeling as a means to avoid implementation challenges and surprises when formulating and implementing adaptation.

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Section: Agricultural Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Impacts On Agriculture Citationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Agriculture and Ecosystems to Find Suitable Adaptations to Climate Change

Thayer

Vargas

Castellanos

et al. 2020

Climate

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“…Transformations not just of production systems but of farmers livelihoods have evolved as another adaptation option in livestock systems. Some examples include the shifting in choice of livestock in addition to, or the replacement to, other species, and moving from cropping to livestock farming in response to a changing rainfall and more frequent drought occurrences (e.g., [10,54]). There was no further information found from these studies as to further evaluations of such transformational adaptation.…”

Section: Main Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Livestock Under Climate Change: A Systematic Review of Impacts and Adaptation

Escarcha

Lassa

Zander

2018

Climate

108

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Abstract:We conducted a systematic literature review to document the scientific knowledge about climate change impacts and adaptation in livestock systems, and to identify research gaps. The analysis was built from the premise that livestock offers substantial opportunities for food security and sustainable development if adaptation to climate change is appropriated. In examining 126 suitable peer-reviewed publications we discovered five research gaps: (1) a lack of research in Asia and South America; (2) a lack of mutual investigation and linkages between impacts and adaptation; (3) a lack of emphasis on mixed crop-livestock systems; (4) a lack of emphasis on monogastric livestock; and (5) an underrepresentation of quantitative methods including yield impact models. The findings suggest that the research on climate change impacts and adaptation in livestock systems needs to move beyond certain geographical contexts and consider key vulnerability priorities, particularly from developing countries. It is pivotal that research begins to jointly look at climate change impacts and the livestock keepers' adaptation to draw out policy implications and to effectively target support for impact-specific adaptation options. Only if such evidence is established, adaptation will be appropriated accordingly to the needs of the livestock sector, and provision for the growing demand of animal-based products will be secured.

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“…Understanding the effect of climate variability on large herbivore production (LHP) is central to sustainable and effective rangeland management and planning (McKeon et al 1990, O'Reagain et al 2009, Derner et al 2018, Shrum et al 2018. Rangeland ecosystems worldwide are characterized by high precipitation variability, which creates management challenges for livestock producers seeking to match forage production with livestock demand in a proactive manner to prevent resource degradation and optimize livestock production (O'Reagain et al 2009, Derner and.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large‐scale and local climatic controls on large herbivore productivity: implications for adaptive rangeland management

Raynor

Derner

Hoover

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

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Rangeland ecosystems worldwide are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty in precipitation, both within and across years. Such uncertainty creates challenges for livestock managers seeking to match herbivore numbers with forage availability to prevent vegetation degradation and optimize livestock production. Here, we assess variation in annual large herbivore production (LHP, kg/ha) across multiple herbivore densities over a 78‐yr period (1940–2018) in a semiarid rangeland ecosystem (shortgrass steppe of eastern Colorado, USA) that has experienced several phase changes in global‐level sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, as measured by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We examined the influence of prevailing PDO phase, magnitude of late winter (February–April) ENSO, prior growing‐season precipitation (prior April to prior September) and precipitation during the six months (prior October to current April) preceding the growing season on LHP. All of these are known prior to the start of the growing season in the shortgrass steppe and could potentially be used by livestock managers to adjust herbivore densities. Annual LHP was greater during warm PDO irrespective of herbivore density, while variance in LHP increased by 69% (moderate density) and 91% (high density) under cold‐phase compared to warm‐phase PDO. No differences in LHP attributed to PDO phase were observed with low herbivore density. ENSO effects on LHP, specifically La Niña, were more pronounced during cold‐phase PDO years. High herbivore density increased LHP at a greater rate than at moderate and low densities with increasing fall and winter precipitation. Differential gain, a weighted measure of LHP under higher relative to lower herbivore densities, was sensitive to prevailing PDO phase, ENSO magnitude, and precipitation amounts from the prior growing season and current fall–winter season. Temporal hierarchical approaches using PDO, ENSO, and local‐scale precipitation can enhance decision‐making for flexible herbivore densities. Herbivore densities could be increased above recommended levels with lowered risk of negative returns for managers during warm‐phase PDO to result in greater LHP and less variability. Conversely, during cold‐phase PDO, managers should be cognizant of the additional influences of ENSO and prior fall–winter precipitation, which can help predict when to reduce herbivore densities and minimize risk of forage shortages.

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Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate

Cited by 67 publications

References 74 publications

Integrating Agriculture and Ecosystems to Find Suitable Adaptations to Climate Change

Integrating Agriculture and Ecosystems to Find Suitable Adaptations to Climate Change

Livestock Under Climate Change: A Systematic Review of Impacts and Adaptation

Large‐scale and local climatic controls on large herbivore productivity: implications for adaptive rangeland management

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