Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

Grosse, Guido; Harden, Jennifer W.; Turetsky, M. R.; McGuire, A. David; Camill, Philip; Tarnocai, C.; Frolking, Steve; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Jorgenson, T.; Marchenko, S. S.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; French, Nancy H. F.; Waldrop, Mark P.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Striegl, Robert G.

doi:10.1029/2010jg001507

Cited by 392 publications

(390 citation statements)

References 174 publications

(250 reference statements)

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“…Permafrost thaw subject to climate warming can liberate formerly frozen C, which is then released to atmosphere [Davidson et al, 2006;Schuur et al, 2008Schuur et al, , 2009Tarnocai et al, 2009;Grosse et al, 2011;Koven et al, 2011;van Huissteden et al, 2011;Harden et al, 2012;Knoblauch et al, 2013;Pries et al, 2013;Schuur et al, 2013]. This suggests that enhanced permafrost thawing from warming potentially leads to more C loss and may shift the ecosystem C balance toward a weaker sink or a source [Osterkamp and Jorgenson, 2006;Osterkamp, 2007;Schuur et al, 2008].…”

Section: Warming Increased Permafrost Thaw But Enhanced Ecosystem C Amentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Underneath the top organic horizon, the ice-rich silt is about 500 cm deep followed by 23 m of gravel with boulders underlain by sand . The active layer, which thaws annually during the growing season, is about 50-60 cm thick [Natali et al, 2011] and is situated above a perennially frozen permafrost layer [van Everdingen, 2005;Grosse et al, 2011]. Mean annual temperature ) is about À1.0°C.…”

Section: Site Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska

Luo

Natali

et al. 2014

JGR Biogeosciences

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Permafrost thaw and its impacts on ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics are critical for predicting global climate change. It remains unclear whether annual and seasonal warming (winter or summer) affect permafrost thaw and ecosystem C balance differently. It is also required to compare the short-term stepwise warming and long-term gradual warming effects. This study validated a land surface model, the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model, at an Alaskan tundra site, and then used it to simulate permafrost thaw and ecosystem C flux under annual warming, winter warming, and summer warming. The simulations were conducted under stepwise air warming (2°C yr À1 ) during 2007-2011, and gradual air warming (0.04°C yr À1 ) during 2007-2056. We hypothesized that all warming treatments induced greater permafrost thaw, and larger ecosystem respiration than plant growth thus shifting the ecosystem C sink to C source. Results only partially supported our hypothesis. Climate warming further enhanced C sink under stepwise (6-15%) and gradual (1-8%) warming scenarios as followed by annual warming, winter warming, and summer warming. This is attributed to disproportionally low temperature increase in soil (0.1°C) in comparison to air warming (2°C). In a separate simulation, a greater soil warming (1.5°C under winter warming) led to a net ecosystem C source (i.e., 18 g C m À2 yr À1 ). This suggests that warming tundra can potentially provide positive feedbacks to global climate change. As a key variable, soil temperature and its dynamics, especially during wintertime, need to be carefully studied under global warming using both modeling and experimental approaches.

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Section: Warming Increased Permafrost Thaw But Enhanced Ecosystem C Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Site Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska

Luo

Natali

et al. 2014

JGR Biogeosciences

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“…Today, thermokarst lakes and basins alternate with ice-rich Yedoma uplands in this region. Thermokarst has important effects on the ecology, geomorphology, hydrology, and local climate of affected landscapes (Osterkamp et al, 2000;Grosse et al, 2011a). Various recent studies have investigated thermokarst lakes as sources of carbon release to the atmosphere (Zimov et al, 1997;Walter et al, 2006Walter et al, , 2007Schuur et al, 2009;Zona et al, 2009;Karlsson et al, 2010) or as indicators of a changing water balance in permafrost regions by 850 A.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thawing of permafrost soils and sediments is often accompanied by the release of old organic carbon (Anisimov and Reneva, 2006;Zimov et al, 2006b;Schuur et al, 2008;Grosse et al, 2011a) and changes in water and land surface energy balances , which may influence atmospheric processes via feedback mechanisms (Chapin et al, 2005;Walter et al, 2006;Schuur et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial analyses of thermokarst lakes and basins in Yedoma landscapes of the Lena Delta

et al. 2011

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Abstract. Distinctive periglacial landscapes have formed in late-Pleistocene ice-rich permafrost deposits (Ice Complex) of northern Yakutia, Siberia. Thermokarst lakes and thermokarst basins alternate with ice-rich Yedoma uplands. We investigate different thermokarst stages in Ice Complex deposits of the Lena River Delta using remote sensing and geoinformation techniques. The morphometry and spatial distribution of thermokarst lakes on Yedoma uplands, thermokarst lakes in basins, and thermokarst basins are analyzed, and possible dependence upon relief position and cryolithological context is considered. Of these thermokarst stages, developing thermokarst lakes on Yedoma uplands alter ice-rich permafrost the most, but occupy only 2.2 % of the study area compared to 20.0 % occupied by thermokarst basins. The future potential for developing large areas of thermokarst on Yedoma uplands is limited due to shrinking distances to degradational features and delta channels that foster lake drainage. Further thermokarst development in existing basins is restricted to underlying deposits that have already undergone thaw, compaction, and old carbon mobilization, and to deposits formed after initial lake drainage. Future thermokarst lake expansion is similarly limited in most of Siberia's Yedoma regions covering about 10 6 km 2 , which has to be considered for water, energy, and carbon balances under warming climate scenarios.

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“…Assumption 5 is that disturbance events are represented in models in different ways (Grosse et al, 2011;West et al, 2011;Goetz et al, 2012;Hicke et al, 2012). Fire, extreme drought, insect outbreaks, land management, and land cover and land use change influence terrestrial C dynamics via (1) altering rate processes, for example, gross primary productivity (GPP), growth, tree mortality, or heterotrophic respiration; (2) modifying microclimatic environments; or (3) transferring C from one pool to another (e.g., from live to dead pools during storms or release to the atmosphere with fire) (Kloster et al, 2010;Thonicke et al, 2010;Luo and Weng, 2011;Prentice et al, 2011;Weng et al, 2012).…”

Section: Assumptions Of the C Cycle Models And Validity Of This Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: mathematical foundation and its applications

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed roughly 30 % of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions over the past decades, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling and experimental and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under global change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production, NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is timedependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, which is the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times.Moreover, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a threedimensional (3-D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. In addition, the physical emulators make data assimilation computationPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 146Y. Luo et al.: Land carbon storage dynamics ally feasible so that both C flux-and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. Overall, this new mathematical framework offers new approaches to understanding, evaluating, diagnosing, and improving land C cycle models.

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Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

Cited by 392 publications

References 174 publications

Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska

Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska

Spatial analyses of thermokarst lakes and basins in Yedoma landscapes of the Lena Delta

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: mathematical foundation and its applications

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