Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries

Abstract

Introduction 174Methods 175Spatial scale of climate vulnerability assessment 175The three components of vulnerability 175Exposure 176 AbstractAnthropogenic global warming has significantly influenced physical and biological processes at global and regional scales. The observed and anticipated changes in global climate present significant opportunities and challenges for societies and economies. We compare the vulnerability of 132 national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator-based approach. Countries in Central and Western Africa (e.g. Malawi, Guinea, Senegal, and Uganda), Peru and Colombia in north-western South America, and four tropical Asian countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Yemen) were identified as most vulnerable. This vulnerability was due to the combined effect of predicted warming, the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts and opportunities. Many vulnerable countries were also among the world's least developed countries whose inhabitants are among the world's poorest and twice as reliant on fish, which provides 27% of dietary protein compared to 13% in less vulnerable countries. These countries also produce 20% of the world's fish exports and are in greatest need of adaptation planning to maintain or enhance the contribution that fisheries can make to poverty reduction. Although the precise impacts and direction of climate-driven change for particular fish stocks and fisheries are uncertain, our analysis suggests they are likely to lead to either increased economic hardship or missed opportunities for development in countries that depend upon fisheries but lack the capacity to adapt.

Modeling integrated urban water systems in developing countries: case study of Port Vila, Vanuatu

“…It has potential to negatively impact fisheries (Robin South et al 2004;Allison et al 2009), agriculture (Molyneux et al 2012), and tourism (Moreno and Becken 2009). However, results presented in this paper suggest that rapid urban population growth is posing greater and more imminent pressure than climate change on the urban water sector [similar to previous research findings regarding food security in East Timor (Molyneux et al 2012)].…”

Edible Protein Energy Return on Investment Ratio (ep-EROI) for Spanish Seafood Products

“…Having said this, it is important to mention that small pelagic species tend to show strong annual variations in stock abundance (Pauly et al 1998;Fréon et al 2008). Therefore, further fishing pressure on these stocks may increase their vulnerability (Allison et al 2009). …”

I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts

“…In the I-C-SEA Change framework, sensitivity and exposure are not combined as ''potential impact'' (Allison et al 2009), but are taken separately and given equal weight to LAC, which de-emphasizes the importance of adaptive capacity. Like the scoring system, this is consistent with the assumption that adaptive capacity cannot completely negate a high sensitivity or exposure score especially for immediate, short-term impacts of climate change.…”

“…(Allison et al 2009;Muallil et al 2011). This reflects the vulnerability of social and ecological systems of the fisheries subjected to climate change…”

“…In this manner, I-C-SEA Change is a rapid assessment tool that provides the basis and prepares the audience for more comprehensive and broader assessments on which the planning for coastal adaptation responses is best based. I-C-SEA Change is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the three basic elements of vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure, and lack of adaptive capacity (LAC), following a framework revised from IPCC (2001) and Allison et al (2009) We operationally define these terms as the following:…”