Vulnerability of Southern Plains agriculture to climate change

Abstract

Projections of greater interannual and intrannual climate variability, including increasing temperatures, longer and more intense drought periods, and more extreme precipitation events, present growing challenges for agricultural production in the Southern Plains of the USA. We assess agricultural vulnerabilities within this region to support identification and development of adaptation strategies at regional to local scales, where many management decisions are made. Exposure to the synergistic effects of warming, such as fewer and more intense precipitation events and greater overall weather variability, will uniquely affect rain-fed and irrigated cropping, high-value specialty crops, extensive and intensive livestock production, and forestry. Although the sensitivities of various agricultural sectors to climatic stressors can be difficult to identify at regional scales, we summarize that crops irrigated from the Ogallala aquifer possess a high sensitivity; rangeland beef cattle production a low sensitivity; and rain-fed crops, forestry, and specialty crops intermediate sensitivities. Numerous adaptation strategies have been identified, including drought contingency planning, increased soil health, improved forecasts and associated decision support tools, and implementation of policies and financial instruments for risk management. However, the extent to which these strategies are adopted is variable and influenced by both biophysical and socioeconomic considerations. Inadequate local-and regional-scale climate risk and resilience information suggests that climate vulnerability research and climate adaptation approaches need to include bottom-up approaches such as learning networks and peer-to-peer communication.

Spatio-temporal variation of crop loss in the United States from 2001 to 2016

“…In the SP region, the fraction of aggregated indemnities for hail is larger than excess moisture indicating the intensity of precipitation rather than sheer amount is important in this area. The SP reported both monthly increases and decreases loss cost due to hail likely minimizing annual trends, but still remaining an important COL affecting high value, hail-sensitive specialty crops in the area (Steiner et al 2018).…”

“…In contrast, excessive moisture, more intense precipitation and hail, and flooding can directly and indirectly damage crops (Walthall et al 2012). Increased exposure of cropping systems to higher than normal temperatures and/or prolonged drought conditions can cause shifts in production regions and drive crop losses threatening food security (Schlenker and Roberts 2009, Hatfield et al 2014, Elias et al 2018a, Kistner et al 2018, Steele and Hatfield 2018, Steiner et al 2018.…”

Soil carbon sequestration in bermudagrass golf course fairways in Lubbock, Texas

“…Climate change has become an important topic globally, with rising air temperatures influencing weather patterns, severity of storms, ocean levels, and animal populations (IPCC, 2007; Lal, 2004; Steiner, Briske, Brown, & Rottler, 2017). Increased quantities of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O, drive temperature increases.…”

Agricultural Management Impacts on Soil Health: Methods for Large Spatial Scales

“…T he Southern Great Plains of the United States, once dominated primarily by grasslands, is today a diverse region of productive cropland and grazingland activity (USGS, 2011). Wheat, corn, cotton, hay, sorghum, and soybean are the most common crops (USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2014); together with a small number of specialty crops, these contribute more than $16 billion toward the annual agricultural value of the Southern Great Plains (Steiner et al, 2017). The region's climate is generally conducive to agricultural production and is characterized by spatial gradients of temperature and precipitation (Fig.…”

“…1). The climate presents challenges, however, especially to farms dependent on thresholds of precipitation and temperature for production (Steiner et al, 2017). Interannual variability is also pronounced; droughts are frequent, as are severe storms.…”