Vulnerability of the British swine industry to classical swine fever

Porphyre, Thibaud; Correia‐Gomes, Carla; Chase-Topping, Margo; Gamado, Kokouvi; Auty, Harriet; Hutchinson, Ian; Reeves, Aaron; Gunn, George J.; Woolhouse, Mark E. J.

doi:10.1038/srep42992

Cited by 16 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 44 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Such a long delay in detection could result in substantial within-herd transmission (Figure 1), and mean a herd could pose a transmission risk to neighbouring herds for a substantial period of time (Porphyre et al, 2017). Inferences about the time of introduction are useful, however, as they help inform backward tracing of contacts between infected and susceptible herds (Elbers et al, 2001) and help improve predictions of epidemic characteristics (Porphyre et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This raises the question of how effective monitoring pig mortality would be as a method of early detection of ASFV, particularly during the earlier stages of an epidemic when farmer awareness may be limited. Such a long delay in detection could result in substantial within‐herd transmission (Figure ), and mean a herd could pose a transmission risk to neighbouring herds for a substantial period of time (Porphyre et al., ). Inferences about the time of introduction are useful, however, as they help inform backward tracing of contacts between infected and susceptible herds (Elbers et al., ) and help improve predictions of epidemic characteristics (Porphyre et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation

Guinat

Porphyre

Gogin

et al. 2017

Transbound Emerg Dis

106

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

SummaryMortality data are routinely collected for many livestock and poultry species, and they are often used for epidemiological purposes, including estimating transmission parameters. In this study, we infer transmission rates for African swine fever virus (ASFV), an important transboundary disease of swine, using mortality data collected from nine pig herds in the Russian Federation with confirmed outbreaks of ASFV. Parameters in a stochastic model for the transmission of ASFV within a herd were estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Estimates for the basic reproduction number varied amongst herds, ranging from 4.4 to 17.3. This was primarily a consequence of differences in transmission rate (range: 0.7–2.2), but also differences in the mean infectious period (range: 4.5–8.3 days). We also found differences amongst herds in the mean latent period (range: 5.8–9.7 days). Furthermore, our results suggest that ASFV could be circulating in a herd for several weeks before a substantial increase in mortality is observed in a herd, limiting the usefulness of mortality data as a means of early detection of an outbreak. However, our results also show that mortality data are a potential source of data from which to infer transmission parameters, at least for diseases which cause high mortality.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation

Guinat

Porphyre

Gogin

et al. 2017

Transbound Emerg Dis

106

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…While the concept of super-spreader location focuses on the ability to spread the disease, the concept of super-susceptible location emphasizes the high likelihood of contracting the viral disease at a particular location compared to less susceptible ones 51 – 53 . In other words, by identifying super-susceptible locations, we aim finding the most susceptible nodes within the spatial human movement network.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial super-spreaders and super-susceptibles in human movement networks

Chin

Bouffanais

2020

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As lockdowns and stay-at-home orders start to be lifted across the globe, governments are struggling to establish effective and practical guidelines to reopen their economies. In dense urban environments with people returning to work and public transportation resuming full capacity, enforcing strict social distancing measures will be extremely challenging, if not practically impossible. Governments are thus paying close attention to particular locations that may become the next cluster of disease spreading. Indeed, certain places, like some people, can be “super-spreaders”. Is a bustling train station in a central business district more or less susceptible and vulnerable as compared to teeming bus interchanges in the suburbs? Here, we propose a quantitative and systematic framework to identify spatial super-spreaders and the novel concept of super-susceptibles, i.e. respectively, places most likely to contribute to disease spread or to people contracting it. Our proposed data-analytic framework is based on the daily-aggregated ridership data of public transport in Singapore. By constructing the directed and weighted human movement networks and integrating human flow intensity with two neighborhood diversity metrics, we are able to pinpoint super-spreader and super-susceptible locations. Our results reveal that most super-spreaders are also super-susceptibles and that counterintuitively, busy peripheral bus interchanges are riskier places than crowded central train stations. Our analysis is based on data from Singapore, but can be readily adapted and extended for any other major urban center. It therefore serves as a useful framework for devising targeted and cost-effective preventive measures for urban planning and epidemiological preparedness.

show abstract

“…In the UK, this perspective is supported by the veterinary establishment (e.g. Williams & Gillespie, 2013;Gillespie et al, 2015;Porphyre et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Smallholder knowledge-practices and smallholding animals: Threats or alternatives to agricultural biosecurity?

Holloway

2019

Journal of Rural Studies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper responds to claims that smallholders in the UK farming landscape present a biosecurity threat to commercial farming, by exploring smallholders' perspectives on animal health and their practising of biosecurity, studied through focus group research in England. Biosecurity in animal agriculture has emerged as a key research theme, with attention paid to how biosecurity is both conceptualised and practised in different farming situations. Biosecurity, as an effort to make life safe, is viewed as an articulation of political and scientific discourses with on-farm practices and particular farming and food systems. The paper draws on recent theorisation of biosecurity to discuss smallholders' engagement with the health of their animals and with biosecurity practices, and to explore their relationships with vets and commercial farmers. Contesting representations of themselves and their practices as bioinsecure, smallholders instead contend that commercial farmers and farming produce more risky disease situations, and that smallholding fosters relationships of care and response-ability more likely to engender animal health and welfare. At the same time, smallholders and farmers are involved in attempts to piece together a practical biosecurity under different pressures. The paper argues that within the complex topologies of heterogeneous farming landscapes, the 'small scale' of smallholding is constructed as problematic, and that there needs to be an acknowledgement of a politics of biosecurity in which different modes of practicing farming are debateable.

show abstract

Vulnerability of the British swine industry to classical swine fever

Cited by 16 publications

References 44 publications

Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation

Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation

Spatial super-spreaders and super-susceptibles in human movement networks

Smallholder knowledge-practices and smallholding animals: Threats or alternatives to agricultural biosecurity?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About