Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change

Клименко, В. В.; Федотова, Е. В.; Tereshin, A. G.

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.10.069

Cited by 34 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Thus, in general, assuming the same areas of wood harvest, the total national wood production is expected to rise in 2050 by some 30% compared to the recent decades due to an elevated net primary production of forests. Consequently, due to persistent and anticipated climatic changes the available primary energy wood resources by mid-century would increase by more than 9 Mtce that considerably exceeds the climatic impacts on other sectors of energy production -both negative for thermal and nuclear power plants (due to expected reduction of thermal cycle efficiency, which will result in additional fuel consumption of 4.3 Mtce/year [ 19]), and positive for hydropower generation (probable growth up to 4%, or 7-8 TWh/year, which is equivalent to the reduction of fossil fuel consumption by 2.5 Mtce/year [ 16,19]).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increase of Energy Potential of Russian Forest resources due to Climate Change and CO₂ Fertilization

2019

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Biofuels are an important energy source, currently providing about 10% of the world energy demand, including 2% of global electricity generation and the same share of total liquid fuel consumption. Wood fuel in Russia is one of the most affordable and most important type of renewable energy resources. In this paper we study the possible changes in energy potential of Russia's forest resources as a result of changes in the atmosphere and climate. The estimates of the global dioxide concentrations dynamics and mean annual air temperature change over the Russian territory for the period up to 2050 are developed using the MPEI models of the carbon cycle and regional climate. The calculations show that the change of net primary productivity of forests of Russia as a result of the CO2 abundance increase in the atmosphere, as well as of the increase of the air temperature and rainfall will enhance available energy resources of wood fuel by mid-century by more than 9 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce).

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increase of Energy Potential of Russian Forest resources due to Climate Change and CO₂ Fertilization

2019

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“…Research findings of the recent works for Canada, the United States [3], Western Europe [4], China [5] and Russia [6][7] and clearly indicate that the overall household energy demand decreases in the middlelatitude regions and increases in the tropic ones.…”

Section: Global Dynamics Of Heating Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The future climate conditions in the considered region were estimated using the climate model developed in the Global Energy Problems Laboratory of the Moscow Power Engineering Institute. The details of this estimation were discussed in [7]. The time horizon for the prospective climate was assumed at about 2070.…”

Section: Modelling Of the Cogeneration Plantmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficiency of Space Heating Systems under the Climate Change

2019

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Impacts of the climate change on the space heating systems are discussed. We have used the latest global temperature data of the Global Climate Historical Network to demonstrate that the heating and cooling demand combined is decreasing in the world regions with boreal and moderate climate conditions almost everywhere. A simulation approach was developed to assess the impact of the climate change of the efficiency of a modern binary-cycle cogeneration power plant. Both statistical parameters of the air temperature and the thermal circuit of the power plant were modeled in details. It was found that even for a quite optimistic climate scenario the annual efficiency decrease may be as high as 1-2%. This means that careful consideration of the climate-related heating load dynamics is of key importance by implementation and renovation of the district heating systems.

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“…Таким образом, в целом с тех же площадей вырубок к 2050 г. за счёт повышения биопродуктивности отечественных лесов можно будет заготовить примерно на 30% больше древесины, чем в последние десятилетия. Следовательно, обусловленное наблюдающимися и ожидаемыми природно-климатическими изменениями увеличение доступных энергетических ресурсов древесного топлива может к середине столетия составить более 9 млн т у.т., что по абсолютной величине значительно превышает климатические эффекты для других отраслей энергетикикак отрицательные для ТЭС и АЭС (ожидаемое снижение КПД тепловых циклов электростанций, что приведёт к дополнительному расходу топлива в 2,0 млн т у.т./год), так и положительные для ГЭС (вероятный рост электрогенерации на 4%, или 7-8 млрд кВт • ч/год, что эквивалентно снижению расхода топлива на 2,5 млн т у.т./год [15]).…”

Section: энергетикаunclassified

An impact of atmospheric and climate changes on the energy potential of Russian forest resources

Клименко

Tereshin

Mikushina

2019

Доклады Академии наук

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Biofuels are an important source of energy, currently providing about 10% of the world energy demand, including 2% of power generation and 2.5% of liquid fuel consumption. Wood fuel in Russia is one of the most affordable and most important source of renewable energy resources. In this paper, the possible changes of energy potential of the forest resources of Russia induced by changes in the atmosphere composition and climate are studied. The estimates of changes of the global carbon dioxide concentrations and mean annual air temperature across the Russian territory for the period up to 2050 are presented, simulated using global carbon cycle model and regional climate model developed in MPEI. It is projected that the change of net primary production of Russian forests due to an increase of CO2 abundance in the atmosphere and raising both air temperature and precipitation will increase available energy resources of wood fuel at the mid-century by up to 30% or more than 9 million tce/year.

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Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change

Cited by 34 publications

References 37 publications

Increase of Energy Potential of Russian Forest resources due to Climate Change and CO₂ Fertilization

Increase of Energy Potential of Russian Forest resources due to Climate Change and CO₂ Fertilization

Efficiency of Space Heating Systems under the Climate Change

An impact of atmospheric and climate changes on the energy potential of Russian forest resources

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Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change

Cited by 34 publications

References 37 publications

Increase of Energy Potential of Russian Forest resources due to Climate Change and CO2 Fertilization

Increase of Energy Potential of Russian Forest resources due to Climate Change and CO2 Fertilization

Efficiency of Space Heating Systems under the Climate Change

An impact of atmospheric and climate changes on the energy potential of Russian forest resources

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Product

Resources

About

Increase of Energy Potential of Russian Forest resources due to Climate Change and CO₂ Fertilization

Increase of Energy Potential of Russian Forest resources due to Climate Change and CO₂ Fertilization