Vulnerability to climate change of coastal mangrove-dependent communities in the Tana Delta, Kenya: a local perspective

Abstract

Coastal mangrove-dependent communities face various risks due to climate change, thus rendering them vulnerable. This study explored the vulnerability of these communities in the Tana Delta in Kenya using an indicator-based vulnerability assessment framework to better understand their exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Data was collected through household surveys (n = 377), focus group discussions (FGDs), and key informant interviews (KIIs). The analysis revealed mean vulnerability indices at the sub-location level ranged from 0.850 for Kipini to − 0.913 for Kilelengwani and − 2.702 for Ozi. The statistically significant indicators of vulnerability were (i) exposure—high temperatures and rainfall changes; (ii) sensitivity—household numbers, head of household’s age, dependents’ education, and dependents’ employment; and (iii) adaptive capacity—ownership of assets, access to community infrastructure and services, condition/quality of houses, total income, and alternative sources of income. The findings highlight the need for adaptation strategies that ensure greater financial assets supported by education and skills enhancement to utilize existing opportunities. Attention to community infrastructure and services is crucial. Policy should focus on financial, physical, and human assets to reduce community vulnerability alongside the continued conservation and management of mangrove resources. The results will help policymakers in addressing the impacts of climate change and benefit households in the study area. These insights can be applied to regions with similar climate conditions and livelihood systems.