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Pompe-Kirn, Vera; Japelj, Barbara; Primic-Žakelj, Maja

doi:10.1023/a:1008992303903

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Among the studies using APC models, the most commonly used software package was Nordpred (R package developed by Harald Fekjær and Bjørn Møller, Cancer Registry of Norway)10 38 and most of these studies were published in recent years. GLIM (Oxford, UK)114 was the second most commonly used software for APC modelling, but it was mainly used in the earlier years, with the latest study published in 2000 45. Special software WinBUGS (Cambridge, UK),115 INLA (R package developed by Rue and Martino, Department of Mathematical Sciences NTNU, Norway)116 or BAMP (Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Imperial College, London, UK)117 were used for studies employing Bayesian methods 2 20 22 25 26 31–33 48 85.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review

Luo

Hughes

et al. 2019

BMJ Open

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ObjectivesTo identify and summarise all studies using statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence or mortality rates more than 5 years into the future.Study typeSystematic review.MethodsWe performed a systematic literature search in multiple electronic databases to identify studies published from 1 January 1988 to 14 August 2018, which used statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence and/or mortality rates. Reference lists of relevant articles were checked for additional potentially relevant articles. We developed an organisational framework to classify methods into groups according to the type of data and the statistical models used. Included studies were critically appraised using prespecified criteria.ResultsOne hundred and one studies met the inclusion criteria; six studies used more than one statistical method. The number of studies reporting statistical projections for lung cancer increased substantially over time. Eighty-eight studies used projection methods, which did not incorporate data on smoking in the population, and 16 studies used a method which did incorporate data on smoking. Age–period–cohort models (44 studies) were the most commonly used methods, followed by other generalised linear models (35 studies). The majority of models were developed using observed rates for more than 10 years and used data that were considered to be good quality. A quarter of studies provided comparisons of fitted and observed rates. While validation by withholding the most recent observed data from the model and then comparing the projected and observed rates for the most recent period provides important information on the model’s performance, only 12 studies reported doing this.ConclusionThis systematic review provides an up-to-date summary of the statistical methods used in published lung cancer incidence or mortality projections. The assessment of the strengths of existing methods will help researchers to better apply and develop statistical methods for projecting lung cancer rates. Some of the common methods described in this review can be applied to the projection of rates for other cancer types or other non-infectious diseases.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review

Luo

Hughes

et al. 2019

BMJ Open

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Time trends of female lung cancer in Hong Kong: Age, period and birth cohort analysis

Chiu

Wong

2004

Intl Journal of Cancer

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The study was conducted to estimate the effects of age, year of diagnosis (period) and year of birth (cohort) on the time trend of female lung cancer incidence between 1976 and 2000 in Hong Kong. Data were obtained from a populationbased cancer registry and the Census and Statistics Department. Using the Hong Kong general population of 1990 as the reference, age-adjusted incidence rates were computed by using direct standardization. We also analyzed secular trends in 2 consecutive periods, 1976 -1990 and 1991-2000, using a Poisson regression model to estimate the annual percentage change in incidence rate. Age, period and cohort effects were assessed employing the method proposed by Clayton and Schifflers with 3 Poisson regression models fitted separately for age alone, age and period, and age and cohort. The age-adjusted incidence rate increased steadily up to 1990, when a peak of 40.1 per 100,000 was reached. Thereafter, a downward trend was observed. The overall annual increase Key words: female lung cancer; incidence, age-period-cohort models; time trend; annual percentage change; epidemiologyLung cancer among females has progressed from being a rare disease in the early 1900s to becoming one of the most common cancers worldwide today. 1 In Hong Kong, a special administrative region of China with a resident population of 6.8 million, lung cancer is currently the second most commonly diagnosed cancer among females, accounting for around 13% of all forms of cancers. 2 The age standardized incidence rate of Hong Kong females used to be the highest around the world in the early 1990s. 3 In 2000, Hong Kong women still had a very high incidence rate (32.1/100,000), only slighted lower than the highest one (34.0/ 100,000 for American females) in the world. 4 Different patterns in the time trend of female lung cancer during the past 50 years were observed in various countries. A number of epidemiological studies in European countries showed upward trends in the incidence rate. [5][6][7][8] Other studies showed a less sharp rise or a plateau or even a decline in incidence rate in the past 2 decades. 9 -13 These heterogeneous patterns of trends reflect various effects of age, birth cohort and calendar period on incidence. For lung cancer, there is usually about several decades between the first exposure to a carcinogen and the clinical appearance of the disease. 14 Consequently, recent trends in incidence are strongly influenced by changes in exposure to carcinogens several decades ago, when the cohorts now experiencing the highest rates were young. By contrast, other factors may affect lung cancer incidence in a short period of time for population of all age groups, independent of the cohort of birth. For instance, improved diagnostic technology, with better detection of asymptomatic cases, could theoretically lead to a general increase in the number of new cases over a few years for all age groups.Thus, using appropriate statistical models to disentangle the effect of birth cohort from that of calendar period of ...

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Breast cancer patients in Libya: Comparison with European and central African patients

Boder

Abdalla

Elfageih³

et al. 2011

Oncology Letters

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Abstract. The present study evaluated the incidence of breast cancer in Libya and described the clinicopathological and demographic features. These features were then compared with corresponding data from patients from sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria) and Europe (Finland). The study consisted of 234 patients with breast carcinoma, admitted to the African Oncology Institute in Sabratha, Libya, during the years [2002][2003][2004][2005][2006]. The pathological features were collected from pathology reports, patient histories from hospital files and the Sabratha Cancer Registry. The demographic differences between the Libyan, Nigerian and Finnish populations were prominent. The mean age of breast cancer patients in Libya was 46 years which was almost identical to that of Nigeria, but much lower than that of Finland. The Libyan breast cancer incidence was evaluated as 18.8 per 100,000 female individuals. This incidence was markedly higher in Finland, but was also high in Nigeria. Libyan and Nigerian breast cancer is predominantly of premenopausal type and exhibits unfavorable characteristics such as high histological grade and stage, large tumor size and frequent lymph node metastases. However, the histological types and histopathological risk features show similar importance regarding survival as European breast cancer cases. Survival in Libya ranks between the rates of survival in Nigeria (lowest) and Finland (highest). In conclusion, in Libya and other African countries, premenopausal breast cancer is more common than postmenopausal breast cancer. However, the opposite is true for Europe. Population differences may be involved, as suggested by the known variation, in the distribution of genetic markers in these populations. Different types of environmental impacts, however, cannot be excluded.

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Untitled

Cited by 3 publications

References 15 publications

Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review

Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review

Time trends of female lung cancer in Hong Kong: Age, period and birth cohort analysis

Breast cancer patients in Libya: Comparison with European and central African patients

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