War as an Enduring Determinant of Party Choice in Postwar Southeast Europe

Abstract

In postwar elections, voter choices are often shaped by the memory of past violence. Taking Bosnia & Hercegovina and Croatia as case studies, this study examines war as an enduring determinant of party choice among the age cohorts who lived through the wars of the 1990s, and the cohorts who were born after. Based on a representative survey of over 5,000 citizens, the results show that in Bosnia & Hercegovina, war-related issues and social divisions continue to inform party preferences in the postwar generation as much as they did in the generations that came before. In Croatia, by contrast, war-related issues are showing signs of diminishing political relevance.THE IMPACT OF WAR IS OFTEN FELT LONG AFTER THE guns have gone silent (Ghobarah et al. 2003). Its effects are not only medical or economic but also relate to the nature of political competition in postwar societies. This is evident from the growing body of research that has found war to shape party preferences. For instance, refugees who had fled to Serbia from other former Yugoslav republics to escape the violence showed greater support for the nationalist Serbian Radical Party (Srpska Radikalna Stranka) in the decade after the wars (Konitzer & Grujić 2009). In Croatia, Israel and the United States, former combatants have been found to prefer hawkish and nationalist parties (