Warm Springs Ran Deep: Friends-and-Neighbors Voting in the U.S. Presidential Elections of 1940 and 1944

Mixon, Franklin G.

doi:10.5539/jpl.v6n2p105

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…27 In other words, voters understand and appreciate the implied efficiency of casting ballots in favor of candidates who have much to lose locally from nonperformance in the legislative arena (Kjar and Laband 2002, p. 144). For a look at some of the empirical research on presidential elections from this stream of literature, see Lewis-Beck and Rice (1983), Rice and Macht (1987), Kjar and Laband (2002), Mixon and Tyrone (2004), Disarro et al (2007), Mixon et al (2008), Kahane (2009) and Mixon (2013Mixon ( , 2018. 28 Jackson and Kingdon (1992, p. 813) assert that this issue is exacerbated in the case of a single dimension, as would occur when using League of Conservation Voters scores of political ideology to analyze voting on strip mining legislation.…”

Section: Relevance and Limitations Of The Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Political Ideology Stable? Evidence from Long-Serving Members of the United States Congress

2019

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This study extends the political science and political psychology literature on the political ideology of lawmakers by addressing the following question: How stable is a legislator’s political ideology over time? In doing so, we employ Nokken–Poole scores of legislators’ political ideology for members of the United States (U.S.) House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate who were elected prior to the 103rd Congress that began in early 1991 and who served consecutively through the 115th Congress, which ended in early 2019. Results from individual time-series estimations suggest that political ideology is unstable over time for a sizable portion of the members of both major political parties who serve in the U.S. Congress, while analysis of the pooled data suggests that, after accounting for inertia in political ideology and individual legislator effects, Republican legislators become more conservative over time. These results run somewhat counter to the finding in prior studies that the political ideologies of lawmakers and other political elites are stable over time.

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Section: Relevance and Limitations Of The Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Political Ideology Stable? Evidence from Long-Serving Members of the United States Congress

2019

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“…The current study follows Mixon (2013) in extending the literature on friends-and-neighbors voting by analyzing election returns from a statewide race-that of the 2017 U.S. Senate Special Election in Alabama-pitting Republican candidate, Roy Moore, against Democratic candidate, Doug Jones. Of interest here is the intense national focus on the scandal in Moore's personal life, including various allegations of sexual misconduct, which, in some cases, involved a minor.…”

Section: Subject Friends-and-neighbors Effect Amentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given the political intrigue that accompanied the campaign, during which Moore faced accusations of sexual improprieties, the process and results of this particular 2017 election provide an opportunity to explore the impact of political scandal on friends-and-neighbors voting (or localism) in election contests. More specifically, the present study fills a void in the public choice literature on localism (e.g., see Lewis-Beck and Rice 1983;Rice and Macht 1987;Kjar and Laband 2002;Disarro et al 2007;Mixon 2013) by exploring how political scandal impacts the friends-and-neighbors advantage that typically accrues to local candidates in situations not involving political scandal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glass Houses and Friends-and-Neighbors Voting: An Exploratory Analysis of the Impact of Political Scandal on Localism

Mixon

2018

Economies

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The 2017 U.S. Senate Special Election in Alabama, which was decided on 12 December 2017, was one of the most contentious and scandal-laden political campaigns in recent memory. The Republican candidate, Roy Moore, gained notoriety during the 2017 campaign when a number of women alleged to national media that as teenagers they were subject to sexual advances by Moore, who was then in his early 30s and serving as a local assistant district attorney. The process and results of this particular election provide the heretofore unexamined impact of political scandal on localism or friends-and-neighbors voting in political contests. Based on data from the 2017 special election in Alabama, econometric results presented here suggest that a candidate who is embroiled in political scandal suffers an erosion in the usual friends-and-neighbors effect on his or her local vote share. In this particular case, the scandal hanging over Moore eroded all of the friends-and-neighbors effect that would have been expected (e.g., about five percentage points) in his home county, as well as about 40% of the advantage Moore had at home over his opponent in terms of constituent political ideology.

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Swing States, the Winner-Take-all Electoral College, and Fiscal Federalism

2017

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Abstract. There is a debate regarding the impact of swing or independent voters in American politics. While some argue that swing voters either do not swing or have a marginal impact on campaigns, the decline in voter partisan identification and the rise of independents means that they have a potential impact on elections, making them a desirable commodity to candidates. Additionally, presidential elections represent a unique case for swing voters. A robust literature notes that during the presidential primary and caucus process, voters in states such as Iowa or New Hampshire effectively have a greater voice in the election than those in other states. This is due to the number of voters in these states, and the strategic importance of having their primaries and caucuses positioned at the beginning of the presidential selection process. Additionally, the Electoral College is criticized as giving disproportionate influence to some voters or states, or as otherwise distorting the results in presidential elections because of its winner-take-all method of allocating votes in 48 or the 50 states. But these assertions notwithstanding, can the impact or distortion that swing-voters have in some states compared to others, in terms of their relative influence on presidential elections, be quantified? Relatedly, does the Electoral College distort the impact of swing voters? This study presents a new method to assess the impact of swing voters within the winner-take-all method that states use to allocate electoral votes. By looking at several recent U.S. presidential elections, we quantify how the winner-take-all method of allocating electoral votes produces disparities in the voting power of citizens across states.

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Warm Springs Ran Deep: Friends-and-Neighbors Voting in the U.S. Presidential Elections of 1940 and 1944

Cited by 3 publications

References 11 publications

Is Political Ideology Stable? Evidence from Long-Serving Members of the United States Congress

Is Political Ideology Stable? Evidence from Long-Serving Members of the United States Congress

Glass Houses and Friends-and-Neighbors Voting: An Exploratory Analysis of the Impact of Political Scandal on Localism

Swing States, the Winner-Take-all Electoral College, and Fiscal Federalism

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