Warming springs and habitat alteration interact to impact timing of breeding and population dynamics in a migratory bird

Abstract

In seasonal environments, increasing spring temperatures lead many taxa to advance the timing of reproduction. Species that do not may suffer lower fitness. We investigated why black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa limosa), a ground-breeding agricultural grassland shorebird, have not advanced timing of reproduction during the last three decades in the face of climate change and human-induced habitat degradation. We used data from an 11-year field study to parameterize an Integral Projection Model to predict how spring temperature and habitat quality simultaneously influence the timing of reproduction and population dynamics. We found apparent selection for earlier laying, but not a correlation between the laying dates of parents and their offspring. Nevertheless, in warmer springs, laying dates of adults show a stronger positive correlation with laying date in previous springs than in cooler ones, and this leads us to predict a slight advance in the timing of reproduction if spring temperatures continue to increase. We also show that only in landscapes with low agricultural activity, the population can continue to act as a source. This study shows how climate change and declining habitat quality may enhance extinction risk.

High Migratory Survival and Highly Variable Migratory Behavior in Black-Tailed Godwits

“…rates documented here are considerably lower than those found in other studies with color-marked godwits (Roodbergen et al, 2008;Kentie et al, 2016Kentie et al, , 2018Loonstra et al, 2019). This suggests our use of satellite transmitters weighing 9.5 g may have served as a handicap that reduced survival.…”

“…Nonetheless, their flexibility does not enable godwits to adequately respond to all types of environmental change. During the past nine decades, for example, godwits have failed to shift the onset of their breeding season earlier (Meltofte et al, 2018) and have become increasingly mismatched with the local insect phenology on their breeding grounds, leading to reductions in their reproductive success that have compounded the reductions simultaneously incurred by broadscale agricultural intensification (Kleijn et al, 2010;Schroeder et al, 2012;Kentie et al, 2018). As such, heightened flexibility may enable godwits to respond to some, but not necessarily all, environmental changes.…”

Life‐history strategy varies with the strength of competition in a food‐limited ungulate population

“…Long‐term changes of mean population size within a stochastic environment can be caused by habitat and climate change (Simmonds & Coulson ; Kentie et al ; Paniw et al ), outbreak of diseases (Altizer et al ), or arrival or disappearance of a new competitor or predator species (Fritts & Rodda ; Courchamp et al ; Duyck et al ). For example the North Atlantic Oscillation influences the Soay sheep population on St. Kilda (Coulson et al ; Pelletier et al ) – a large‐scale driver of local climate that exhibits multi‐decadal oscillations and has recently experienced a multi‐decadal trend towards large mean values.…”

Variation in Egg Size of Black-Tailed Godwits

“…Previous studies have frequently connected this decline in hatching success with the seasonality of agricultural activities and predation pressure (Kleijn et al 2010, Schroeder et al 2012. The seasonal decrease in fledging success was also observed by Kentie et al (2018) and might be related to the seasonal decrease in body condition of chicks (Loonstra et al 2018). In any case, the mechanisms underlying these survival patterns remain poorly understood.…”