Warning Decision Making: The Relative Roles of Conceptual Models, Technology, Strategy, and Forecaster Expertise on 3 May 1999

Andra, David L.; Quoetone, Elizabeth M.; Bunting, William F.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0559:wdmtrr>2.0.co;2

Cited by 57 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…When numerous strong storms are forecast to occur, NWS WFOs likely account for this by having higher staffing levels to handle the anticipated demand of warning operations (Andra et al 2002). However, if an office is staffed for a regular workday (i.e., low situational awareness or anticipation of numerous strong storms), there may not be enough warning meteorologists on duty to handle the amount of warnings that must be issued (WDTD 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The situational awareness of the office before storm development determines how prepared a staff is to handle the anticipated warning situation [Andra et al 2002;Warning Division Training Division (WDTD) 2016]. Yet, warning operations and performance are highly dependent upon the individuals working a particular event (Boustead and Mayes 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additional personnel answer phone calls, disseminate warning information (e.g., via chat software), and analyze observations and model output in support of the warning meteorologist (Smith 2014). Some circumstances require multiple warning meteorologists working a CWA simultaneously by sectorizing operations (Andra et al 2002). This division of labor is done to maximize the accuracy of warnings while preventing workload issues for the warning meteorologist(s), particularly for long duration events and/or events with multiple hazards.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An investigation of local and national NWS warning outbreaks for severe convective events.

Bruick¹,

Karstens²

2017

J. Operational Meteor.

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The National Weather Service (NWS) is charged with the responsibility of issuing severe weather warnings for the public whenever life and property may be in danger. During severe convective events, the NWS issues severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. This study solely examines severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings conveying threats for wind, hail, and tornadoes.Since 1 October 2007, the NWS has issued storm-based warnings, which cover smaller areas than the previous county-based system. Situational awareness and appropriate staffing levels are necessary to make warning operations successful within a NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO). If storm coverage and severity are great enough, warning outbreaks can occur in which an NWS WFO has an anomalously high number of warnings valid at the same time-covering large portions of their areas of responsibility. In the top cases, there have been ≥10 warnings in effect at the same time within a county warning area, and ≥30 across the country.A dichotomy exists between the environments that are associated with local and national tornado warning and severe thunderstorm warning outbreaks. Tornado warning outbreaks occur with high-end supercellular storm modes in high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and shear profiles. These events are often identified by the Storm Prediction Center as moderate or high risk with particularly dangerous situation tornado watches issued. Meanwhile, severe thunderstorm warning outbreaks transpire in mostly slight or enhanced risk areas with modest CAPE and low shear, which produce mainly pulse and linear thunderstorms. Verification statistics of these warnings indicate poorer performance compared to national averages-whether on local or national scales-with lower critical success index scores and higher false alarm ratios, although most events are warned during these outbreaks. ABSTRACT (Manuscript

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An investigation of local and national NWS warning outbreaks for severe convective events.

Bruick¹,

Karstens²

2017

J. Operational Meteor.

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“…A session was also held on the role of the forecaster and production tools at the 2006 European Working Group on Operational Workstations (EGOWS) meeting (see www.met.hu/pages/egows2006). In addition, many papers during the past several decades have discussed the role of the human forecaster, including Novak et al (2008), Stuart et al (2007a,b), Stuart et al (2006), Baars and Mass (2005), Doswell (2004), Roebber et al (2004), Bosart (2003), Mass (2003), Andra et al (2002), Roebber et al (2002), Roebber and Bosart (1996), Doswell, (1986), and Snellman (1977.…”

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confidence: 99%

On The MSC Forecasters Forums and the Future Role of the Human Forecaster

Sills¹

2009

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

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“…4 In addition, lightning-detection networks started in the late 1970s (Orville et al 1983;Maier et al 1984) had by 1998 grown to cover Canada and the contiguous United States (Orville et al 2002), which may play a role in situational awareness. The decision process has been greatly aided by this technology (e.g., see Andra et al 2002).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tornado-Warning Performance in the Past and Future—Another Perspective

Glahn

2005

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

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Warning Decision Making: The Relative Roles of Conceptual Models, Technology, Strategy, and Forecaster Expertise on 3 May 1999

Cited by 57 publications

References 12 publications

An investigation of local and national NWS warning outbreaks for severe convective events.

An investigation of local and national NWS warning outbreaks for severe convective events.

On The MSC Forecasters Forums and the Future Role of the Human Forecaster

Tornado-Warning Performance in the Past and Future—Another Perspective

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