Warrants for Prescription: Analytically and Empirically Based Approaches to Improving Decision Making

Lipshitz, Raanan; Cohen, Marvin S.

doi:10.1518/0018720053653811

Cited by 18 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Originating in studies of domain experts making complex, high stakes, and ill-structured decisions under time pressure, often in dangerous situations, NDM has gathered momentum over the past decade, both in organizational (Lipshitz et al, 2006) and human factors (e.g., Lipshitz and Cohen, 2005) applications. In theoretical terms, Klein's (1993) recognitionprimed decision making (RPD) model, with its emphasis on the crucial role of pattern recognition in obviating the need for extensive deliberation of multiple alternatives, epitomizes the NDM approach.…”

Section: Rethinking Bounded Rationality and The Role Of Intuitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managerial and Organizational Cognition

Hodgkinson¹

2015

International Encyclopedia of the Social &Amp; Behavioral Sciences

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Section: Rethinking Bounded Rationality and The Role Of Intuitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managerial and Organizational Cognition

Hodgkinson¹

2015

International Encyclopedia of the Social &Amp; Behavioral Sciences

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“…Unlike schema theory, influence diagrams provide a formally coherent, deeply studied, widely used, fully specified calculus for reasoning under conditions of uncertainty and multiple objectives (Pearl, 1989(Pearl, , 2000Lipshitz & Cohen, 2005). Influence diagrams are both precise enough and general enough to account for reasoning in a variety of contexts.…”

Section: Motivation: Represent Inferential Relationships For Dynamic mentioning

confidence: 99%

Full Spectrum Tools for Collecting, Analyzing, and Using Cultural Data in Decision Making

Cohen¹,

Grannis²,

Freedy³

et al. 2010

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INTRODUCTION Motivation: Problem and ApproachThis paper describes the Integrated Social Network Decision Model (ISDM) as a set of support tools for collecting, analyzing, and exploiting data about cultural diverse populations. The ISDM supports full, iterative planning cycles for SSTR, disaster relief and humanitarian missions in cross cultural environments. Its purpose is to enhance data collection, data analysis, and planning aspects of such missions by a synthesis of sampling, cognitive, statistical, and decision theoretic technologies.In today's military environment soldiers may be required to plan and conduct a broad variety of non-kinetic as well as conventional kinetic missions. For example, in Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) missions, achieving the desired effects frequently involves changing both the attitudes and behaviors of a population, and success depends on leveraging their existing beliefs, values, and avenues of influence. The presence of cross-cultural human terrain adds layers of uncertainty to these tasks. Soldiers may be interacting with different sub-populations with different values, customs, and beliefs, and whose relationships with one another and with US forces are ambiguous and fluid. Ideally, soldiers would have ready access to local area experts in such matters and would themselves accumulate expertise and intuitive ability over a lengthy period of training and experience. Limits on time and resources almost always make this impossible. Soldiers who are deployed in unfamiliar surroundings and charged with delicate operations in civilian populations are nonetheless expected to "hit the ground" running. The purpose of the work described here is to provide as much computer-based support as possible for this task, with an eye to training intuition rather than replacing it.In order to be fully effective, support tools such as the presently described ISDM must resolve a number of technical issues. These issues include enhancing the soldiers' ability to: (1) make cogent observations and collect cultural data virtually from scratch; (2) use these data to identify the relevant subpopulations involved; (3) determine the cultural elements that differentiate subpopulations from one another at different levels of resolution; (4) identify central players and map out interactions and overlapping memberships among different groups; and finally (5) use these data and analytical results for practical planning and evaluation of alternative courses of action. The present paper addresses these technical issues and outlines a set of support tools for mission planning based on minimal prior knowledge and imperfect data in cross-cultural environments.1 Department of Sociology, University of California Los Angeles Report Documentation PageForm Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing ...

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“…From a theoretical perspective, these strategies range along a continuum from cognitively demanding, analytical comparisons of the options available, to relatively less demanding recognition-driven responses (Lipshitz & Cohen, 2005). The selection of a particular strategy will be determined by a number of factors, including the previous experience of the decision maker, the relative costs associated with an incorrect decision, the relative uncertainty of the information available, the complexity of the environment, and the inherent skills and abilities of the decision maker (Gonzalez, 2004).…”

Section: Decision-making Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived GPS Use and Weather-Related Decision Strategies Among Pilots

Wiggins

2007

The International Journal of Aviation Psychology

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Warrants for Prescription: Analytically and Empirically Based Approaches to Improving Decision Making

Cited by 18 publications

References 59 publications

Managerial and Organizational Cognition

Managerial and Organizational Cognition

Full Spectrum Tools for Collecting, Analyzing, and Using Cultural Data in Decision Making

Perceived GPS Use and Weather-Related Decision Strategies Among Pilots

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