Was ist demographische Alterung? Der Beitrag der Veränderungen der demographischen Parameter zur demographischen Alterung in den alten Bundesländern seit 1950

Dinkel, Reiner H.

doi:10.1007/978-3-540-76711-4_8

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…There is no universal answer to the question of whether fertility or mortality changes in the past have been the main driving force for the observed population ageing. Dinkel’s ( 2008 ) figures suggest that the decline in fertility has further contributed to the ageing of the West German population in recent decades. For other countries—such as France, Italy, Sweden, and the United States—it has been estimated that survival improvements were either equally important or were even the major determinant for population ageing (Caselli and Vallin 1990 ; Preston et al 1989 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Old-Age Healthy Dependency Ratio in Europe

Muszyńska

Rau

2012

Population Ageing

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The aim of this study is to answer the question of whether improvements in the health of the elderly in European countries could compensate for population ageing on the supply side of the labour market. We propose a state-of-health-specific (additive) decomposition of the old-age dependency ratio into an old-age healthy dependency ratio and an old-age unhealthy dependency ratio in order to participate in a discussion of the significance of changes in population health to compensate for the ageing of the labour force. Applying the proposed indicators to the Eurostat’s population projection for the years 2010–2050, and assuming there will be equal improvements in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth, we discuss various scenarios concerning future of the European labour force. While improvements in population health are anticipated during the years 2010–2050, the growth in the number of elderly people in Europe may be expected to lead to a rise in both healthy and unhealthy dependency ratios. The healthy dependency ratio is, however, projected to make up the greater part of the old-age dependency ratio. In the European countries in 2006, the value of the old-age dependency ratio was 25. But in the year 2050, with a positive migration balance over the years 2010–2050, there would be 18 elderly people in poor health plus 34 in good health per 100 people in the current working age range of 15–64. In the scenarios developed in this study, we demonstrate that improvements in health and progress in preventing disability will not, by themselves, compensate for the ageing of the workforce. However, coupled with a positive migration balance, at the level and with the age structure assumed in the Eurostat’s population projections, these developments could ease the effect of population ageing on the supply side of the European labour market.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Old-Age Healthy Dependency Ratio in Europe

Muszyńska

Rau

2012

Population Ageing

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“…The average age rose from 41 to 43 years (1). One of the reasons for this phenomenon, alongside persistently low birthrates and increasing life expectancy, is variation in the number of children born per year (2,3). Fluctuations result from historical events; for example, fewer children were born directly after each of the two world wars, but rates rose again in the following years (see [e1] for details).…”

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confidence: 99%

Population Aging and Hospitalization for Chronic Disease in Germany

Nowossadeck

2012

Deutsches Ärzteblatt International

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“…Immigration did not have a particularly significant effect in this analysis, which makes sense considering the age structure of immigrants. Migrants are on average much younger than the German population, and they are predominantly men [44]. Young men have a comparatively low need for inpatient care.…”

Section: Comparison Of Status Quo Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000–2040: Decomposition analysis and projection

2020

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Demographic factors, such as population aging and shrinkage, and non-demographic factors, such as hospitalization rate and length of hospital stay, generate challenges for inpatient care. This paper used decomposition analysis to assess how changes in these factors affected the number of hospital treatment days from 2000 to 2015 in Germany. Demographic aging was linked to increases in the number of treatment days for women (+10.0%) and men (+19.2%) and in hospitalization rates for women +6.0% and men +5.4%. However, these increases were offset by decreases in the number of hospital days (women: 16.5%; men: 7.3%) and length of stay (women: -27.4%; men -26.3%). For the projection up to 2040, 12 scenarios were developed (six for women and six for men) using three variants for future population demographics and two variants for future length of stay and hospitalization rates. One of the two variants for future length of stay and hospitalization rates provides for a constant value for the year 2015. For the second of these two variants variant, a logarithmic model was estimated on the basis of values from 2000 to 2015. and the trends were extrapolated using this model until 2040. The strongest overall predicted increase was 18.4% between 2015 and 2040, including a 22.4% increase for men. In two scenarios for women, only slight declines were predicted. All results, both for the decomposition analysis and projection, indicated a moderate but sustained effect of demographic aging on the number of hospital treatment days, leading to a significant increase in hospital treatment days over the study period. Non-demographic factors also had strong influences, especially in shorter time periods, but these effects offset each other over time. The change in the population size in the period under study had very little effect on the number of hospital treatment days.

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Was ist demographische Alterung? Der Beitrag der Veränderungen der demographischen Parameter zur demographischen Alterung in den alten Bundesländern seit 1950

Cited by 7 publications

References 7 publications

The Old-Age Healthy Dependency Ratio in Europe

The Old-Age Healthy Dependency Ratio in Europe

Population Aging and Hospitalization for Chronic Disease in Germany

Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000–2040: Decomposition analysis and projection

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