Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús

doi:10.2139/ssrn.293800

Cited by 73 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The quantitative unified theories of Fernandez-Villaverde (2003) and Doepke (2004) confirm the significance of these various channels in originating the demographic transition and the shift from stagnation to growth.…”

Section: The Emergence Of Human Capital Formationmentioning

confidence: 63%

From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory

2005

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract This chapter examines the process of development from an epoch of Malthusian stagnation to a state of sustained economic growth. The analysis focuses on recently advanced unified growth theories that capture the intricate evolution of income per capita, technology, and population over the course of human history. Deciphering the underlying forces that triggered the transition from stagnation to growth and the associated phenomenon of the great divergence in income per capita across countries has been widely viewed as one of the most significant challenges facing researchers in the field of growth and development. The inconsistency of non-unified growth models with the main characteristics of the process of development across most of human history induced growth theorists to advance an alternative theory that captures in a single unified framework the epoch of Malthusian stagnation, the modern era of sustained economic growth, and the recent transition between these distinct regimes. Unified growth theory reveals the underlying micro foundations that are consistent with the growth process over the entire history of the human species, enhancing the confidence in the viability of the theory, its predictions and policy implications for the growth process of less developed economies. Terms of use: Documents in

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Section: The Emergence Of Human Capital Formationmentioning

confidence: 63%

From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory

2005

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“…In the extended model, a parent can invest fraction e of its time in the education of its 7 Examples include Becker, Murphy, and Tamura (1990), de la Croix and Doepke (2003), Doepke (2001), andFernández-Villaverde (2001). 8 For simplicity, the exposition is limited to the deterministic model.…”

Section: An Extension With Endogenous Education Decisionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Barro-Becker model, infant and child mortality rates affect choices only to the degree that they influence the overall cost of a surviving child. Falling mortality rates lower the cost of having a surviving child, hence net fertility 1 actually increases, not decreases, as mortality declines (this is discussed in Boldrin andJones 2002 andFernández-Villaverde 2001). The effects of falling adult mortality are more ambiguous (see Boucekkine, de la Croix, and Licandro 2002), but changing adult mortality is an unattractive explanation for fertility decline for other reasons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?

2005

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I compare the predictions of three variants of the altruistic parent model of Barro and Becker for the relationship between child mortality and fertility. In the baseline model fertility choice is continuous, and there is no uncertainty over the number of surviving children. The baseline model is contrasted to an extension with discrete fertility choice and stochastic mortality and a setup with sequential fertility choice. The quantitative predictions of the models are remarkably similar. While in each model the total fertility rate falls as child mortality declines, the number of surviving children increases. The results suggest that factors other than declining infant and child mortality are responsible for the large decline in net reproduction rates observed in industrialized countries over the last century. JEL Classification: J13

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“…In the Barro and Becker model, a reduction in the infant mortality rate both decreases the cost of creating surviving children and increases the expected beneÞts since more children survive to consume. (See Barro and Becker (1989) and Fernandez-Villaverde (2001).) Because of these effects, reductions in the infant mortality rate give rise to increased fertility in the standard formulation of this class of models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%