Was the Reduction in Seasonal Influenza Transmission during 2020 Attributable to Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to Contain Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan?

Abstract

We quantified the effects of adherence to various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the seasonal influenza epidemic dynamics in Japan during 2020. The total monthly number of seasonal influenza cases per sentinel site (seasonal influenza activity) reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases and alternative NPI indicators (retail sales of hand hygiene products and number of airline passenger arrivals) from 2014–2020 were collected. The average number of monthly seasonal influenza cases in 2020 had decreased by approximately 66.0% (p < 0.001) compared to those in the preceding six years. An increase in retail sales of hand hygiene products of ¥1 billion over a 3-month period led to a 15.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.9–20.0%; p < 0.001) reduction in seasonal influenza activity. An increase in the average of one million domestic and international airline passenger arrivals had a significant association with seasonal influenza activity by 11.6% at lag 0–2 months (95% CI: 6.70–16.5%; p < 0.001) and 30.9% at lag 0–2 months (95% CI: 20.9–40.9%; p < 0.001). NPI adherence was associated with decreased seasonal influenza activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, which has crucial implications for planning public health interventions to minimize the health consequences of adverse seasonal influenza epidemics.

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“…To establish a robust and reliable time-series statistical model, multiple stages were incorporated into it [ 11 , 53 , 54 ]. Prior to constructing the model, we checked the probability distribution of the dependent variables and number of weekly newly confirmed HRSV infection cases (the normality of probability distribution was assessed by the Shapiro–Wilk test) ( Figure S2 ), followed by an assessment of the relationships (e.g., linearity) between number of weekly newly confirmed HRSV infection cases and each independent variable.…”