Was Warming Amplified Under Drought Conditions Across China in Observations and Future Projections?

Wang, Lei; Wang, Wen J.; Du, Haibo; Shen, Xiangjin; Wu, Zhengfang; Ma, Shuang

doi:10.1029/2021ef002614

Cited by 16 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 62 publications

(105 reference statements)

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“…We eventually screened out 20 models according to variables and members (Table S2). Bilinear interpolation was applied to interpolate the selected model data to a common 0.5 × 0.5° grid to address the diverse spatial resolutions among the models (Du et al, 2019; Wang et al, 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observed and projected changes in wet and dry spells for the major river basins in East Asia

Huang

Dang

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Spatiotemporal changes in wet and dry spells had significantly contributed to climate‐related natural hazards in East Asia, especially in river basins undergoing warming. However, few studies have systematically analysed these changes for river basins at different latitudes. Herein, we investigated the observed and projected variations in wet and dry spells for East Asian river basins at different latitudes. We found that river basins at low latitudes (Yangtze and Pearl rivers) had obvious wet characteristics, whereas those at high latitudes (Amur and Yellow rivers) had obvious dry characteristics. In general, the river basins presented a ‘wet south but dry north’ spatial pattern. Long‐duration wet spells have been shown to be the primary contributor to total wet spells in low‐latitude river basins, while long‐duration dry spells have been found to be the primary contributor to total dry spells in high‐latitude river basins. Importantly, climate is changing from prolonged wet spells to short, intense wet spells in low‐latitude river basins, whereas the climate is changing from single, short dry spells to moderate, prolonged dry spells at high latitudes. These changes indicate a high probability of flash floods in river basins at low latitudes and a high probability of droughts at high latitudes. In the future, more temporally clustered heavy precipitation events and prolonged dry spells may lead to increasingly uneven precipitation in high‐latitude river basins and the Pearl River basin, especially under the higher shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. In contrast, more frequent consecutive heavy precipitation events may aggravate the risk of flooding in the Yangtze River basin. These findings are expected to serve as a guide for flood and drought risk mitigation in East Asia under a warming climate.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) and relative model error ( RME* ) were used to evaluate the accuracy and the robustness of the performances of the GCMs from CMIP6 (Ge et al, 2021; Wang et al, 2022). The RME* provided a metric to estimate the performance of one model in comparison with that of the other models.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed and projected changes in wet and dry spells for the major river basins in East Asia

Huang

Dang

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…As the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) concluded, anthropogenic in uence induces global climate change since pre-industrial period unequivocally 3 . Model simulation suggest an increased risk of megadrought around the world under global warming in this century [4][5][6][7] , highlighting the importance of mitigation of future warming 4,8,9 . Especially, eastern China will be confronted with the same increasing megadrought condition under a projected high emission scenario [10][11][12] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future risk of decadal megadrought events over eastern China based on IPO-constrained precipitation

Ning

Qin

et al. 2022

Preprint

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A reliable projection of future risk of decadal megadrought event is crucial for adaption and mitigation over eastern China to future climate changes. However, large uncertainties are induced by emission scenarios, model structures, and internal variability in current model simulation. Using a 50-member ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), it is found that, under the same emission scenario, internal variability contributes a large part to the total uncertainties of decadal precipitation variability over eastern China, and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), could contribute about 30% to internal uncertainty during future period (2021–2080). Then, an emergent constraint based on IPO is applied to the model simulated precipitation. Finally, constrained precipitation changes show that northern China will have a high megadrought risk in the 2050s to 2060s, and Yangtze River Valley will have a high megadrought risk in the 2030s to 2040s. These will have great benefit to specific strategies of social infrastructure in the future.

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Cropland Exposure to Extreme Dryness and Wetness in China Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Yang,

Wang,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Global warming by human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of extreme climatic events, which have taken a huge toll on human production and livelihoods. Predicting future changes in extreme wetness and dryness, along with the extent of cropland exposure to these conditions under various scenarios, is essential for effective climate adaptation and achieving sustainable development goals. This study employs the Standardised Antecedent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SAPEI) method to identify extreme dryness and extreme wetness in China for future projections (2021–2100), and to analyse the characteristics of changes in the pixel‐day, intensity, and affected area by extreme dryness and wetness, as well as the cropland exposures to them under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find that the intensity and spatial extent of extreme dryness and wetness significantly increase in future climate projections, especially under high‐emission scenario compared to low‐emission scenario. Under the scenarios with increased emissions, the cropland exposure increased in most parts of China. Therefore, it is particularly urgent to keep the low‐emission scenario in order to minimise the cropland damage caused by extreme drought and wetness in China in the future.

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Was Warming Amplified Under Drought Conditions Across China in Observations and Future Projections?

Cited by 16 publications

References 62 publications

Observed and projected changes in wet and dry spells for the major river basins in East Asia

Observed and projected changes in wet and dry spells for the major river basins in East Asia

Future risk of decadal megadrought events over eastern China based on IPO-constrained precipitation

Cropland Exposure to Extreme Dryness and Wetness in China Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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