Wasted paradise? Policies for Small Island States to manage tourism‐driven growth while controlling waste generation: the case of the Maldives

Abstract

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face tension between economic growth and environmental impact. Tourism fuels growth, but the resulting solid waste and other pollutants threaten the SIDS' natural beauty, quality of life for residents, attractiveness to tourists, and economic success. We assess the tension between tourism-driven economic growth and environmental degradation from a limits-to-growth perspective, developing a generic system dynamics model of the problem using 38 years of data from the Maldives to estimate parameters and Monte-Carlo methods to assess the sensitivity of results to uncertainty. We contrast development paths for the next three decades under three sets of policies focusing on promoting growth, managing tourism demand-supply balance, and improving waste management. Findings are counterintuitive; policies focused on better waste management alone are self-defeating, because they increase tourism, growth and waste generation, undermining attractiveness and growth later. Policies that limit tourism demand improve economic and environmental health.

System dynamics at sixty: the path forward

“…There have been many important contributions since then, some presented in this special issue marking the 60th anniversary. These include methodological advances expanding the system dynamics toolkit to more robust methods to capture network dynamics (Lamberson, ), the interaction of dynamics at multiple timescales (Ford, ), experimental studies of group modeling (McCardle‐Keurentjes et al , 2018) and insights arising from integration of system dynamics and operations research (Ghaffardzadegan and Larson, ), along with applications in medicine (Rogers et al, ), epidemiology (Tebbens and Thompson, ), health care (Minyard et al, ), climate change (BenDor et al, ), environmental policy (Kapmeier and Gonçalves, ), and organizational transformation (Rydzak and Monus, ).…”

Interpreting Daly’s Sustainability Criteria for Assessing the Sustainability of Marine Protected Areas: A System Dynamics Approach

“…Even if tourism is usually assumed to be a green economy, it also contributes to resource consumption and environmental degradation [30]. Tourism generates waste that can contaminate surface, ground, and marine water, which will further threaten biodiversity and ecosystems and in the long run will degrade the attractiveness of the tourist destination itself [31]. In other words, tourism, pollution, and natural resources are tightly connected through the mediating variable tourism attractiveness.…”

“…In other words, tourism, pollution, and natural resources are tightly connected through the mediating variable tourism attractiveness. Tourist destinations in good condition attract a large number of tourists, which may lead to overcrowding that, in turn, reduces its attractiveness [31].…”

A comment on John Sterman's “system dynamics at sixty: the path forward”

“…, product waitlists (Keith et al, 2017), and small-island tourism and waste generation (Kapmeier and Gonçalves, 2018). In my own work, I have always found it worthwhile to make the effort to assemble historical time series on as many dimensions of the dynamic problem as possible, not being satisfied at just one or two (or zero!)…”

“…In fact, the full model (Homer, ) endogenously reproduced a wide range of data, thereby reducing uncertainty in the theory and leading to solid policy conclusions. Other notable examples of careful historical reproduction include models of retail banking services (Oliva and Sterman, ), national energy policy (Bassi, ; Bassi and Shilling, ), opioid abuse (Wakeland et al ., ), product waitlists (Keith et al ., ), and small‐island tourism and waste generation (Kapmeier and Gonçalves, ). In my own work, I have always found it worthwhile to make the effort to assemble historical time series on as many dimensions of the dynamic problem as possible, not being satisfied at just one or two (or zero!)…”