Water and life from snow: A trillion dollar science question

Sturm, Matthew; Goldstein, Michael A.; Parr, Charles

doi:10.1002/2017wr020840

Cited by 251 publications

(203 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Studies have shown the potential impact LAISI may have on the timing of snowmelt Painter et al, 2012), while others have argued that the impact on climate may be significant (Flanner et al, 2007(Flanner et al, , 2009Qian et al, 2009Qian et al, , 2011. Given the importance of snow for water resources for a significant portion of the population (Barnett et al, 2005;Sturm et al, 2017) and the rapid growth of BC emissions in certain regions of the world (e.g. Paliwal et al, 2016;Bond et al, 2013), our aim is to provide a mechanism to include this process in hydrologic forecasting to better address future impact studies.…”

Section: Hydrologic Response To Bc Deposition In a Snowfall Dominatedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling hydrologic impacts of light absorbing aerosol deposition on snow at the catchment scale

Matt

Burkhart

Pietikäinen

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Light absorbing impurities in snow and ice (LAISI) originating from atmospheric deposition enhance snowmelt by increasing the absorption of shortwave radiation. The consequences are a shortening of the snow duration due to increased snowmelt and, at the catchment scale, a temporal shift in the discharge generation during the spring melt season.In this study, we present a newly developed snow algorithm for application in hydrological models that allows for an additional class of input variable: the deposition mass flux of various species of light absorbing aerosols. To show the sensitivity of different model parameters, we first use the model as a 1-D point model forced with representative synthetic data and investigate the impact of parameters and variables specific to the algorithm determining the effect of LAISI. We then demonstrate the significance of the radiative forcing by simulating the effect of black carbon (BC) deposited on snow of a remote southern Norwegian catchment over a 6-year period, from September 2006 to August 2012. Our simulations suggest a significant impact of BC in snow on the hydrological cycle. Results show an average increase in discharge of 2.5, 9.9, and 21.4 %, depending on the applied model scenario, over a 2-month period during the spring melt season compared to simulations where radiative forcing from LAISI is not considered. The increase in discharge is followed by a decrease in discharge due to a faster decrease in the catchment's snow-covered fraction and a trend towards earlier melt in the scenarios where radiative forcing from LAISI is applied. Using a reasonable estimate of critical model parameters, the model simulates realistic BC mixing ratios in surface snow with a strong annual cycle, showing increasing surface BC mixing ratios during spring melt as a consequence of melt amplification. However, we further identify large uncertainties in the representation of the surface BC mixing ratio during snowmelt and the subsequent consequences for the snowpack evolution.

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Section: Hydrologic Response To Bc Deposition In a Snowfall Dominatedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling hydrologic impacts of light absorbing aerosol deposition on snow at the catchment scale

Matt

Burkhart

Pietikäinen

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Rapid and prolonged spring snowmelt is unique to these mountain environments (Trujillo and Molotch, 2014). This efficient runoff generation mechanism (Barnhart et al, 2016) produces water resources of vast economic importance (Sturm et al, 2017). Improved understanding of regional elevation-dependent snowmelt response to warming is a key step toward better predicting and interpreting model estimates of basin-wide runoff.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

2017

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Abstract. In a warmer climate, the fraction of annual meltwater produced at high melt rates in mountainous areas is projected to decline due to a contraction of the snow-cover season, causing melt to occur earlier and under lower energy conditions. How snowmelt rates, including extreme events relevant to flood risk, may respond to a range of warming over a mountain front is poorly known. We present a model sensitivity study of snowmelt response to warming across a 3600 m elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, USA. A snow model was run for three distinct years and verified against extensive ground observations. To simulate the impact of climate warming on meltwater production, measured meteorological conditions were modified by +1 to +6 • C. The total annual snow water volume exhibited linear reductions (−10 % • C −1 ) consistent with previous studies. However, the sensitivity of snowmelt rates to successive degrees of warming varied nonlinearly with elevation. Middle elevations and years with more snowfall were prone to the largest reductions in snowmelt rates, with lesser changes simulated at higher elevations. Importantly, simulated warming causes extreme daily snowmelt (99th percentiles) to increase in spatial extent and intensity, and shift from spring to winter. The results offer insight into the sensitivity of mountain snow water resources and how the rate and timing of water availability may change in a warmer climate. The identification of future climate conditions that may increase extreme melt events is needed to address the climate resilience of regional flood control systems.

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“…While not the focus of this study, these changes will have profound impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and many sectors of the Canadian economy. This includes risks related to freshwater supply from snow (Sturm et al, 2017) and other impacts of changing snow on the Canadian landscape and economy (Sturm et al, 2016). Resolving the dates of summer sea ice-free conditions for Canadian regions has important implication for climate 445 studies, but also for determining impact and mitigation strategies.…”

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confidence: 99%

Canadian Snow and Sea Ice: Trends (1981–2015) and Projections (2020–2050)

Mudryk

Derksen

Howell

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network (CanSISE) is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, 15 and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-20 year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last eight years. The multimodel consensus over the 2020-2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5-10% per decade (or 15-30% in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10% per decade (30% in total) are projected across southern Canada. 25 IntroductionSeasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice influence short term weather and longer term climate by altering the surface energy budget, modifying both the surface reflectivity and thermal conductivity (Serreze et al., 2007;Flanner et al., 2011;Gouttevin et al., 2012). Snow also influences freshwater storage through soil moisture recharge and surface runoff (Barnett et al., 2005). Understanding historical and projected future changes to snow and ice is essential both to assess the importance of 30 physical changes to the climate system, and to thus assess their consequent impacts and risks. A previous assessment of the The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10. 5194/tc-2017-198 Manuscript under review for journal The Cryosphere Previous studies have shown that warming temperatures, which are amplified at higher latitudes as a natural response to increasing greenhouse gases (Serreze et al., 2009;Pithan and Mauritsen, 2014), reduce the spatial extent and mass of snow 45 and ice (for example, see Derksen et al., 2012). In reality, the linkage between warming temperatures and snow/sea ice reduction is more nuanced due to: regional and seasonal climate variability: for example, surface temperature warming across Canadian land and ocean areas is not uniform in space and time, but contains regional and seasonal variability driven by natural climatic processes such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other...

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Water and life from snow: A trillion dollar science question

Cited by 251 publications

References 45 publications

Modelling hydrologic impacts of light absorbing aerosol deposition on snow at the catchment scale

Modelling hydrologic impacts of light absorbing aerosol deposition on snow at the catchment scale

Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

Canadian Snow and Sea Ice: Trends (1981–2015) and Projections (2020–2050)

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