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Cited by 5 publications
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<p><b>Egypt depends on the Nile River to secure 98% of the water it needs for different purposes. About 96% of this water originates outside Egyptian territory. Ethiopia alone is the source of 86% of the Nile’s water. In 2011, Ethiopia announced the construction of a new dam, called the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) at the headwaters of the Nile. The construction of the GERD will have many consequences and risks for Egypt, whose livelihood currently depends on the Nile’s water. The perceptions of these risks differ dramatically depending on the adopted perspective in studying them. Studies to date have analysed these risks by using one or two perspectives at a time, leading to limited assessments of this conflict. In addition, these studies did not take into consideration many other aspects and many other impacts that could affect the situation and outcomes. However, in Egypt’s critical situation and surrounding circumstances, many perspectives must be adopted to gain a better understanding of the nature of these risks. The purpose of this research is to study risks to Egypt’s water supply in general and the Egyptian agricultural sector in particular, because of the GERD’s construction and operation. This study achieves its aims by using different perspectives, frameworks, and tools to understand the nature of the studied risks; identify the root causes; evaluate expected risks; understand how to control, alleviate, and mitigate them; and address the implications for Egypt in general, and for Egypt’s agricultural sector in particular. The Egyptian agricultural sector is expected to be one of the most affected sectors since 70% of the Egyptian share of the Nile is consumed by agricultural activities. This research focuses on studying the risks to that sector because of its significant impact on Egypt.</b></p> <p>This study utilises different perspectives and multiple lenses of complementary analytical frameworks. These perspectives include the historical, legal, risk, and Theory of Constraints (TOC) perspectives, while the frames include historical, legal, probability-impact matrix (PIM), decision trees, decision tables, and a suite of TOC frames. This research adopts a mixed approach, quantitative and qualitative, using literature as well as primary data obtained through interviews at the international and national levels to reveal and evaluate the real situation.</p> <p>In the context of this study, the first two frameworks used shed light on the historical and legal nature of the Egyptian-Ethiopian dispute. These two frames provide an evaluation of the past and current situation to build on for the future. Both frames use a literature review approach to explain their perspectives in the form of descriptive analysis. The other analytical frames use primary data obtained by interviews in a prescriptive analysis. These interviews give voice to different international experts and Egyptian stakeholders. PIM, decision trees, and decision tables frames use primary data from international interviews. PIM frame assesses the expected probabilities and severity of positive and negative risks due to the GERD on Egypt to classify and prioritise these risks. Decision trees and decision tables frames evaluate and compare the Egyptians’ decision alternatives based on different scenarios and suggest new decision alternatives. The TOC frames use five different tools of the TOC Thinking Process tools (TPs) and TOC five focusing steps (5FS). TOC identifies a significant number of root causes of the situation and clarifies their undesired effects by analysing its current state, which indicates the under-achievement of the sector’s goals. It also addresses the implications for Egypt because of these undesirable effects and offers different solutions that when implemented could help to overcome such problems.</p> <p>This study contributes theoretically to the literature in several ways. Firstly, using the multi-framing approach to study Egypt’s situation due to the GERD provides a new theoretical approach, which acknowledges and addresses the complexity of such situations. Secondly, it demonstrates how one might conduct a study of the expected risks taking different points of view through an integrated risk analysis combining different risk analysis methods to provide a fuller and more comprehensive analysis. Lastly, the researcher uses the TOC Current Reality Tree (CRT) in a non-standard way, adding a new TOC TP tool, the “Conditional Reality Tree” (Cond. RT). This tool provides the opportunity to study scenarios that are expected to become reality in the near future based on a conditional situation, rather than capturing current reality.</p> <p>This study also makes methodological contributions. One of the main methodological contributions is made by contributing to the multi-framing body of knowledge through the multi-framing approach of this study. This research is also an addition to the literature of the integration of studying the expected risks regarding the Egyptian situation from different points of view. Another methodological contribution is the unique combination of frames included, in addition to the sequential use of frameworks used. This innovative methodology itself is a key contribution of the thesis. No similar study has been conducted elsewhere by using this integrated approach. Moreover, the analytical frames used provide a methodological framework for other similar disputes over shared watercourses and other natural resources. The proposed framework is considered one of the first frameworks that could be used in settling disputes over shared watercourses elsewhere.</p> <p>Moreover, the study’s findings make valuable contributions to different stakeholders and decision makers who can benefit significantly from the study through its recommendations and address cause-effect relationships limiting desirable outcomes from actions taken. The researcher found that the complexity of relationships linking root causes and their undesirable effects (UDEs) of this situation was totally underestimated when compared to those highlighted by the literature. These findings were gained by applying TOC. This is the first study of its kind worldwide to address the Egyptian-Ethiopian dispute using the TOC – both the TPs and 5FS - as well as being the first time that TOC has been applied to an international water dispute.</p> <p>In terms of its contribution to practice, the study suggests applicable insights from these different perspectives for Egyptian decision makers and stakeholders. An integrated framework approach is developed that makes very useful suggestions. It also provides decision makers and stakeholders with a platform for understanding the sector in order to support their decision-making process to ultimately improve its outcomes. In particular, the study makes several significant recommendations related to water practices, agricultural practices, national/governmental issues, new water resource alternatives other than the Nile, and Egypt’s international and foreign affairs.</p>
<p><b>Egypt depends on the Nile River to secure 98% of the water it needs for different purposes. About 96% of this water originates outside Egyptian territory. Ethiopia alone is the source of 86% of the Nile’s water. In 2011, Ethiopia announced the construction of a new dam, called the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) at the headwaters of the Nile. The construction of the GERD will have many consequences and risks for Egypt, whose livelihood currently depends on the Nile’s water. The perceptions of these risks differ dramatically depending on the adopted perspective in studying them. Studies to date have analysed these risks by using one or two perspectives at a time, leading to limited assessments of this conflict. In addition, these studies did not take into consideration many other aspects and many other impacts that could affect the situation and outcomes. However, in Egypt’s critical situation and surrounding circumstances, many perspectives must be adopted to gain a better understanding of the nature of these risks. The purpose of this research is to study risks to Egypt’s water supply in general and the Egyptian agricultural sector in particular, because of the GERD’s construction and operation. This study achieves its aims by using different perspectives, frameworks, and tools to understand the nature of the studied risks; identify the root causes; evaluate expected risks; understand how to control, alleviate, and mitigate them; and address the implications for Egypt in general, and for Egypt’s agricultural sector in particular. The Egyptian agricultural sector is expected to be one of the most affected sectors since 70% of the Egyptian share of the Nile is consumed by agricultural activities. This research focuses on studying the risks to that sector because of its significant impact on Egypt.</b></p> <p>This study utilises different perspectives and multiple lenses of complementary analytical frameworks. These perspectives include the historical, legal, risk, and Theory of Constraints (TOC) perspectives, while the frames include historical, legal, probability-impact matrix (PIM), decision trees, decision tables, and a suite of TOC frames. This research adopts a mixed approach, quantitative and qualitative, using literature as well as primary data obtained through interviews at the international and national levels to reveal and evaluate the real situation.</p> <p>In the context of this study, the first two frameworks used shed light on the historical and legal nature of the Egyptian-Ethiopian dispute. These two frames provide an evaluation of the past and current situation to build on for the future. Both frames use a literature review approach to explain their perspectives in the form of descriptive analysis. The other analytical frames use primary data obtained by interviews in a prescriptive analysis. These interviews give voice to different international experts and Egyptian stakeholders. PIM, decision trees, and decision tables frames use primary data from international interviews. PIM frame assesses the expected probabilities and severity of positive and negative risks due to the GERD on Egypt to classify and prioritise these risks. Decision trees and decision tables frames evaluate and compare the Egyptians’ decision alternatives based on different scenarios and suggest new decision alternatives. The TOC frames use five different tools of the TOC Thinking Process tools (TPs) and TOC five focusing steps (5FS). TOC identifies a significant number of root causes of the situation and clarifies their undesired effects by analysing its current state, which indicates the under-achievement of the sector’s goals. It also addresses the implications for Egypt because of these undesirable effects and offers different solutions that when implemented could help to overcome such problems.</p> <p>This study contributes theoretically to the literature in several ways. Firstly, using the multi-framing approach to study Egypt’s situation due to the GERD provides a new theoretical approach, which acknowledges and addresses the complexity of such situations. Secondly, it demonstrates how one might conduct a study of the expected risks taking different points of view through an integrated risk analysis combining different risk analysis methods to provide a fuller and more comprehensive analysis. Lastly, the researcher uses the TOC Current Reality Tree (CRT) in a non-standard way, adding a new TOC TP tool, the “Conditional Reality Tree” (Cond. RT). This tool provides the opportunity to study scenarios that are expected to become reality in the near future based on a conditional situation, rather than capturing current reality.</p> <p>This study also makes methodological contributions. One of the main methodological contributions is made by contributing to the multi-framing body of knowledge through the multi-framing approach of this study. This research is also an addition to the literature of the integration of studying the expected risks regarding the Egyptian situation from different points of view. Another methodological contribution is the unique combination of frames included, in addition to the sequential use of frameworks used. This innovative methodology itself is a key contribution of the thesis. No similar study has been conducted elsewhere by using this integrated approach. Moreover, the analytical frames used provide a methodological framework for other similar disputes over shared watercourses and other natural resources. The proposed framework is considered one of the first frameworks that could be used in settling disputes over shared watercourses elsewhere.</p> <p>Moreover, the study’s findings make valuable contributions to different stakeholders and decision makers who can benefit significantly from the study through its recommendations and address cause-effect relationships limiting desirable outcomes from actions taken. The researcher found that the complexity of relationships linking root causes and their undesirable effects (UDEs) of this situation was totally underestimated when compared to those highlighted by the literature. These findings were gained by applying TOC. This is the first study of its kind worldwide to address the Egyptian-Ethiopian dispute using the TOC – both the TPs and 5FS - as well as being the first time that TOC has been applied to an international water dispute.</p> <p>In terms of its contribution to practice, the study suggests applicable insights from these different perspectives for Egyptian decision makers and stakeholders. An integrated framework approach is developed that makes very useful suggestions. It also provides decision makers and stakeholders with a platform for understanding the sector in order to support their decision-making process to ultimately improve its outcomes. In particular, the study makes several significant recommendations related to water practices, agricultural practices, national/governmental issues, new water resource alternatives other than the Nile, and Egypt’s international and foreign affairs.</p>
The world is in urgent need of effective international rules to govern the use of freshwater resources shared by two or more states and the resolution of disputes arising from such use. International watercourseswhether rivers, lakes, or aquifersare unevenly distributed across political boundaries and are increasingly susceptible to depletion and degradation. The increasing shortage of fresh water, coupled with growing consumption demands, have led to interstate water disputes over allocation and use in practically every part of the world. Moreover, such disputes have proven difficult to resolve due to the complex hydrological and geographical characteristics of fresh water; interconnections with other economic, political, and national security interests; and the relatively weak international legal framework that is currently in place. First published in 2001, with a second edition in 2007, the third edition of Stephen C. McCaffrey's The Law of International Watercourses, made available in 2019, addresses the myriad of issues surrounding international watercourses, interstate disputes concerning their use, and the law governing both. The new edition provides a much-needed update to the previous work, reflecting the important developments that have taken place in the field over the past decade. These include, among others, the entry into force in 2014 of the Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses (Watercourses Convention) 1 as well as recent interstate freshwater
Water law
This article gives an overview of the global water law research and provides a contemporary understanding of water law spanning across public and private law questions of natural resources use, environmental protection, and water-related disasters. The overview is based on a systematic literature review. Using HLA Hart’s distinction, we divide the various strands of water law scholarship into two main perspectives, namely the internal and the external. From the law’s internal perspective, water law research is conducted with an intent to interpret and clarify rights and obligations in existing legal instruments, such as multilateral agreements and national statutes, and case law. Based on the literature review, vibrant themes from this perspective are water use and protection, water cooperation, human right to water, rights of nature, water security, water services, and coherence between legal instruments and institutions. From law’s external perspective, the focus of water law research is to analyse and understand how law as an instrument and societal institution facilitates and steers, but also impedes, the movement of public and private actors toward certain societal goals effectively and legitimately. Here, themes such as water law in collaborative and adaptive governance, ecosystem approach, good governance, and climate change adaptation are central.
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