Water, climate, and social change in a fragile landscape

Abstract

Abstract. We present here and in the companion papers an analysis of sustainability in the Middle Rio Grande region of the U.S.-Mexico border and propose an interdisciplinary research agenda focused on the coupled human and natural dimensions of water resources sustainability in the face of climate and social change in an international border region. Key threats to water sustainability in the Middle Rio Grande River region include: (1) increasing salinization of surface and ground water, (2) increasing water demand from a growing population in the El Paso/Ciudad Juarez area on top of an already high base demand from irrigated agriculture, (3) water quality impacts from agricultural, municipal, and industrial discharges to the river, (4) changing regional climate that portends increased frequency and intensity of droughts interspersed with more intensive rainfall and flooding events, and (5) disparate water planning and management systems between different states in the U.S. and between the U.S. and Mexico. In addition to these challenges, there is an increasing demand from a significant regional population who is (and has been historically) underserved in terms of access to affordable potable water. To address these challenges to water resources sustainability, we have focused on: (1) the determinants of resilience and transformability in an ecological/social setting on an international border and how they can be measured and predicted; and (2) the drivers of change . . . what are they (climate, social, etc.) and how are they impacting the coupled human and natural dimensions of water sustainability on the border? To tackle these challenges, we propose a research agenda based on a complex systems approach that focuses on the linkages and feedbacks of the natural, built/managed, and social dimensions of the surface and groundwater budget of the region. The approach that we propose incorporates elements of systems analysis, complexity science, and the use of modeling tools such as scenario planning and back-casting to link the quantitative with the qualitative. This approach is unique for our region, as are our bi-national focus and our conceptualization of ''water capital''. In particular, the concept of water capital provides the basis for a new interdisciplinary paradigm that integrates social, economic, and natural sectors within a systems framework in order to understand and characterize water resources sustainability. This proposed approach would not only provide a framework for water sustainability decision making for our bi-national region at the local, state, and federal levels, but could serve as a model for similar border regions and/or international rivers in arid and semi-arid regions in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

“…Negotiated changes to water management that are based only on correcting historic streamflow change may be insufficient to address more severe current or future changes (Carey et al, 2014;Kirby et al, 2014) or, worse, may exacerbate future streamflow change. Therefore, restoration efforts in 'lower flows' watersheds may need to focus on reducing human water demand, by increasing water-use efficiency or reducing economically marginal water use (Hargrove et al, 2013). Melis et al, 2011), but managing low flows may become more important where low flows decline and flood flows increase.…”

“…In 'lower flows' watersheds, planners also might try to increase storage of winter and early spring water for release in late spring and summer , but excess water may be too scarce to support desired riparian communities. Therefore, restoration efforts in 'lower flows' watersheds may need to focus on reducing human water demand, by increasing water-use efficiency or reducing economically marginal water use (Hargrove et al, 2013).…”

Cascading impacts of climate change on southwestern US cropland agriculture

“…The estimated 50% mid-century decline in Rio Grande flows below Elephant Butte Reservoir flows (Llewellyn and Vaddey 2013) will impact pecan growers, driving greater dependence on the more expensive groundwater supplies. Water shortages will also be exacerbated by increasing demands from the region's growing urban population and by increasing groundwater salinity (Hargrove et al 2013).…”

A Comprehensive Process for Stakeholder Identification and Engagement in Addressing Wicked Water Resources Problems

“…The future of water resources management in the Middle Rio Grande basin, defined by the portion of the basin from Elephant Butte Reservoir in southern New Mexico to the "Junta de los Rios" (the convergence of the Rio Grande with the Rio Conchos in far west Texas), fits the definition of a wicked problem. This part of the Rio Grande basin can be characterized as having limited and dwindling supplies of water, increasing demands for water from multiple sectors, and a segmented governance system spanning two U.S. states and two countries [5]. On top of this, the region faces a number of drivers of change, including: (1) climate change that is impacting both (a)water supply, through reduced snowpack and timing of flows in the headwaters, and (b) demand, through increasing temperatures and greater evapotranspiration; (2) agricultural practices and trends, especially increasing production of high water demand crops and greater reliance on groundwater of marginal quality for irrigation; (3) urban growth, impacting water demand and quality (through wastewater discharges); and (4) growing demand for environmental services, such as riparian habitat and environmental flows [5][6][7][8].…”

“…This part of the Rio Grande basin can be characterized as having limited and dwindling supplies of water, increasing demands for water from multiple sectors, and a segmented governance system spanning two U.S. states and two countries [5]. On top of this, the region faces a number of drivers of change, including: (1) climate change that is impacting both (a)water supply, through reduced snowpack and timing of flows in the headwaters, and (b) demand, through increasing temperatures and greater evapotranspiration; (2) agricultural practices and trends, especially increasing production of high water demand crops and greater reliance on groundwater of marginal quality for irrigation; (3) urban growth, impacting water demand and quality (through wastewater discharges); and (4) growing demand for environmental services, such as riparian habitat and environmental flows [5][6][7][8]. In this mix of changing conditions, the prevailing water governance in the region was developed for the situation that existed about 100 years ago, and is characterized by rigid water institutions, weak participation, division by artificial borders, and quiet but protracted conflicts [5].…”