Water Cycle Changes

doi:10.1017/9781009157896.010

Cited by 87 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 1,337 publications

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“…Therefore, the intra-annual distribution of P deserves more attention when studying the evolution of annual discharge. In most studies, it is only considered to look at changes in discharge peaks, floods, or droughts (Douville et al, 2021;Milly et al, 2002;Rottler et al, 2020;Tuel et al, 2022;Vicente-Serrano et al, 2014). We calculate the indices defined by García- Barrón et al (2013) to evaluate the trends in the intra-annual cycle of P for the forcing GSWP3.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The effects of intra-annual variations of P on discharge are primarily considered in the literature through the study of seasonality and annual extremes of P and PET in order to examine their impact on floods (Douville et al, 2021;Milly et al, 2002;Rottler et al, 2020), drought events (Douville et al, 2021;Vicente-Serrano et al, 2014), and more generally, on discharge peaks (Bouwer et al, 2008;Tuel et al, 2022). Stahl et al (2010) found the trends in discharge over the end of the century were disconnected between summer flows and winter flows for an ensemble of small near-natural catchments in Europe.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Annual precipitation increased between 1901 and 2005 over most of Europe except the Mediterranean area, where they tended to decrease (Christidis & Stott, 2022;Douville et al, 2021;Knutson & Zeng, 2018). Trends per decade are less significant due to the high inter-annual variability of precipitation P (Douville et al, 2021). Trends in potential evapotranspiration (PET) are linked to an increase in the energy available at the surface, which is highly correlated to rising temperatures (Douville et al, 2021;Vicente-Serrano et al, 2014).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Understanding the hydrological cycle and how it evolves due to a changing climate is a significant challenge of this century.Over the past century, several studies have shown the impact of climate change on climate variables in Europe. Annual precipitation increased between 1901 and 2005 over most of Europe except the Mediterranean area, where they tended to decrease (Christidis & Stott, 2022;Douville et al, 2021;Knutson & Zeng, 2018). Trends per decade are less significant due to the high inter-annual variability of precipitation P (Douville et al, 2021).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Trends per decade are less significant due to the high inter-annual variability of precipitation P (Douville et al, 2021). Trends in potential evapotranspiration (PET) are linked to an increase in the energy available at the surface, which is highly correlated to rising temperatures (Douville et al, 2021;Vicente-Serrano et al, 2014). Few studies have directly examined European PET trends, except over the Mediterranean area, where studies have shown a…”

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confidence: 99%

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Budyko Framework Based Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on Watershed Evaporation Efficiency and Its Impact on Discharge Over Europe

Collignan,

Polcher,

Bastin

et al. 2023

Water Resources Research

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In the context of climate change, the stakes surrounding water availability are rapidly intensifying. Decomposing and quantifying the effects of climate on discharge allows us to understand their impact on water resources better. We propose a methodology to separate the effect of change in the annual mean of climate variables from the effect of the intra‐annual distribution of precipitation. It combines the Budyko framework with Land Surface Model (LSM) outputs. The LSM is used to reproduce the behavior of 2134 reconstructed watersheds across Europe between 1902 and 2010, with climate inputs as the only source of change. We fit a one‐parameter approximation of the Budyko framework to the LSM outputs. It accounts for the evolution of the annual mean in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). We introduce a varying parameter in the equation, representing the effect of long‐term variations in the intra‐annual distribution of P and PET. To better assess the effects of changes in annual means or intra‐annual distribution of P, we construct synthetic forcings fixing one or the other. European results show that the trends in the annual averages of P dominate the trends in discharge due to climate. The second main climate driver is PET, except over the Mediterranean area, where changes in intra‐annual variations of P have a higher impact on discharge than trends in PET. Therefore the effects of changes in the intra‐annual distribution of climate variables are to be addressed when looking at changes in annual discharge.

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