Water demand for electricity in deep decarbonisation scenarios: a multi-model assessment

Abstract

International audienceThis study assesses the effects of deep electricity decarbonisation and shifts in the choice of power plant cooling technologies on global electricity water demand, using a suite of five integrated assessment models. We find that electricity sector decarbonisation results in co-benefits for water resources primarily due to the phase-out of water-intensive coal-based thermoelectric power generation, although these co-benefits vary substantially across decarbonisation scenarios. Wind and solar photovoltaic power represent a win-win option for both climate and water resources, but further expansion of nuclear or fossil- and biomass-fuelled power plants with carbon capture and storage may result in increased pressures on the water environment. Further to these results, the paper provides insights on the most crucial factors of uncertainty with regards to future estimates of water demand. These estimates varied substantially across models in scenarios where the effects of decarbonisation on the electricity mix were less clear-cut. Future thermal and water efficiency improvements of power generation technologies and demand-side energy efficiency improvements were also identified to be important factors of uncertainty. We conclude that in order to ensure positive effects of decarbonisation on water resources, climate policy should be combined with technology-specific energy and/or water policies

Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies

“…Electricity supply systems account for approximately 14% of global human water withdrawal 13 : Most thermal power plants use water for cooling, while hydroelectric plants affect waterways through dams and water losses to evaporation and seeping 50,51 . As discussed in earlier literature 11,12,20,50,51 , future projections of water withdrawals are highly uncertain as they depend on the degree to which utilities adapt to water scarcity, for instance by installing dry cooling technologies in thermal power plants. Besides cooling water, water losses from hydropower and withdrawals for biomass irrigation are projected to increase substantially in the future 21 .…”

“…Process-detailed integrated assessment models (IAMs) of the energy-economy-climate system are frequently used to analyze alternative climate change mitigation strategies and their implications, with a focus on greenhouse gas emission reductions. Only recently other specific environmental impacts such as air pollution 8,17 , land-use for bioenergy 18,19 or water demand 11,12,20,21 have been included in IAMs, but so far none of these studies considers the breadth of impacts studied here. Accordingly, a consistent and holistic evaluation of co-benefits of different mitigation pathways is still missing.…”

Robust climate change research: a review on multi-model analysis

“…Furthermore, an MMC analysis framework could also be employed to discuss the mechanism design of stable climate alliance in combination with the non-cooperative game theory, and analyze the impacts of freeriding behaviors on the stability of the climate alliance (Arnell et al 2016, Lessmann et al 2015). Although many of the models involved in these studies may not purely be IAMs, most importantly, all reflect the significance of the MMC or ensemble method for obtaining reliable scientific findings and making robust climate policies (Palosuo et al 2012, Vetter et al 2015, Mouratiadou et al 2018.…”

“…We therefore contribute to the existing literature in two aspects: the first is to summarize and analyze the extant IAM-based multimodel studies, capture the current literature gaps, explore some promising directions for future research, and serve as a robust and reliable resource for making science-based policy to address climate change. Meanwhile, multi-model approaches, especially for multimodel ensemble technology, play significant roles in projected changes in climate extremes, meteorology dynamics, and atmospheric physics (Lopez-Franca et al 2016, Romera et al 2017), predictive control in decarbonization engineering , as well as assessment of air quality trends, water resources, and other global change issues (Colette et al 2011, Rao et al 2016, Myhre et al 2017, Mouratiadou et al 2018. Therefore, the second task of this review is to provide an extended analysis on multi-model ensemble projections and other multi-model-based global change issues, attempting to explore the growth trends of relevant publication and citations, identify the influential institutions in this field, and analyze the potential cooperation networks across institutions.…”

REMIND2.1: Transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits

“…The deep transformation of the energy system, transportation and industry provides both synergies and trade-offs with broader sustainable development objectives as defined by the UN Sustainable Development Goals (Griggs et al, 2013). As such, IAMs increasingly try to capture additional effects of climate policy, most prominently air pollution (Rao et al, 2016;West et al, 2013;Vandyck et al, 2018;Rauner et al, 2020) and water use (Mouratiadou et al, 2018;Fricko et al, 2016).…”