Changes in rainfall and land use/land cover (LULC) can influence river discharge from a catchment in many ways. Homogenized river discharge data from three stations and average rainfall records, interpolated from 13 stations, were examined for long-term trends and decadal variations in the headwater, upper and middle catchments of the Bagmati River. LULC changes over five decades were quantified using multitemporal Landsat images. Mann-Kendall tests on annual time series showed a significant decrease in river discharge (0.61% per year) from the entire Bagmati catchment, although the decrease in rainfall was statistically insignificant. However, declines in river discharge and rainfall were both significant in upper catchment. Decadal departures from long-term means support these trend results. Over tenfold growth in urban area and a decrease in agricultural land were observed in the upper catchment, while forest cover slightly increased in the entire catchment between 1975 and 2015. Correlation analysis showed a strong association between surface runoff, estimated using the curve number method, observed river discharge and rainfall in the upper catchment, while the relationship was weaker in the headwater catchment. These results were also supported by multiple regression analysis, suggesting that human activities together with climate change have contributed to river discharge changes in the Bagmati catchment.Bosch and Hewlett [15] suggested that clearing of forests increases river discharge while recovery of vegetation or afforestation decreases the discharge. Growth in urban areas can increase surface runoff while evaporation and ground water recharge may have varying response [16,17]. Increasing river discharge is also linked with expansion of agricultural land and decrease in shrubs and forests [18,19]. In the Ganges basin, natural and climatic variability in precipitation and river discharge are further affected by rapid population growth and subsequent LULC changes, including urbanization and deforestation [20]. Nevertheless, a few studies also reported no significant changes in rainfall, evapotranspiration and river discharge in relation to forest-cover changes [21,22].Within Nepal, significant LULC changes have occurred, especially with conversion from forest to agriculture. Forest cover in Nepal decreased from 45% in 1966 to 29% in 1994 [23,24]. However, recent forest assessments over 20 districts of Terai region suggest that, the rate of decrease has slowed down to 0.06% per year during 1990-2010 [24]. Forest conditions are estimated to be improving with community-based forest management and government regulations [23][24][25]. However, increasing frequency of weather-related extreme events in the region [26] such as excessive rainfall, long drought spells, landslides and floods have already had negative impacts on agriculture, forestry and biodiversity in Nepal [23].The Bagmati River is not only important in relation to the initial settlement of Kathmandu valley, its tributary systems are also crucia...